Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Futuristic

Of 55 developers who shipped a Futuristic Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×4.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×1162 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 116 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 116 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 55
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $779 → $30k → $18k → $3.6k → $3.1k → $3.7k → $2.3k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 55
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $6.1k (exactly $6,110)
Top 5% $552k (exactly $552,005)
Developers, 2 yr 55
Released games 122
Announced 116
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Deckbuilding; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Game, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 18,988 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $6.1k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 31 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
Dune: Imperium older $22.99 3,806 94% 114k $2.6M (exactly $2,624,998) Dire Wolf
Beneath Oresa older $24.99 1,122 78% 34k $841k (exactly $841,163) Broken Spear Inc.
Rogue Command $19.99 1,018 89% 31k $610k (exactly $610,495) feneq
OVIS LOOP · EA $16.99 1,083 88% 32k $552k (exactly $552,005) LIFUEL
Big Winner $12.99 550 82% 17k $214k (exactly $214,335) iFAction Studio
For The Warp older $14.99 434 72% 13k $195k (exactly $195,170) Massive Galaxy Studios
System Crash older $14.99 250 83% 7.5k $112k (exactly $112,425) Rogue Moon Studios
Anode Heart: Layer Null $15.99 227 91% 6.8k $109k (exactly $108,892) Stove Powered Games
Mineral Defense $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Corestone Games
Technotopia $4.99 599 86% 18k $90k (exactly $89,670) Yustas
Infinity: HexaDome Tactics $19.99 92 75% 2.8k $55k (exactly $55,172) Blindspot Games
Project Afterfall · EA $19.99 80 75% 2.4k $48k (exactly $47,976) MuHa Games, Eerie Forest Studio
Barrel Roll $4.99 188 96% 5.6k $28k (exactly $28,144) Barrel Roll

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.