Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Romance

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Romance Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Romance

Only 15 developers shipped a Romance Deckbuilding in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Matchmaking Inc., made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 40 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $25k, ×53 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.5M, ×3278 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 40 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 53.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 40 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Romance
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $70k → $32k → $25k → $13k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Romance: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $2.4k (exactly $2,427)
Median $25k (exactly $25,330)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $40,223)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 37
Announced 40
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Romance
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Dating Sim, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Anime, Funny, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 7,046 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.5k, median $25k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $1.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.5k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 40 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
Matchmaking Inc. $8.99 5,773 87% 173k $1.6M (exactly $1,556,978) Wave Games
Youtubers Life 3 $19.99 468 50% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) UPLAY Online
SpunkStock: Music Festival older $14.99 406 95% 12k $183k (exactly $182,578) RegulusNSFW
Colony City 27λ older $10.99 398 87% 12k $131k (exactly $131,221) Bunny Eats Tiger
Helmetman · EA older $19.99 136 79% 4.1k $82k (exactly $81,559) GoniNmimi Games
Fantasy of Caocao 2 older $8.99 290 83% 8.7k $78k (exactly $78,213) 桑尼游戏(Sunny Game)
Fuckstone $11.99 217 88% 6.5k $78k (exactly $78,055) Anime Mania
Brothel Simulator 🍓 older $9.99 235 46% 7.1k $70k (exactly $70,430) Pirates Of The Digital Sea
Tanto Cuore older $9.99 168 91% 5.0k $50k (exactly $50,350) Japanime Digital, Wedontknow Games
Isekai Big Dick $10.99 122 87% 3.7k $40k (exactly $40,223) Hippo Games
Lustful Butler And Charming Sisters $7.99 154 74% 4.6k $37k (exactly $36,914) Summer Clouds(夏雲)
Cupiclaw $9.99 115 87% 3.5k $34k (exactly $34,466) Typin
Morningstar: Book of the Fallen $14.99 67 94% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Droid Productions
Hypnosis Card 2 $12.99 65 78% 2.0k $25k (exactly $25,330) Naku Kinoko
Little Witch Inuko $9.99 42 83% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) Flamme Soft
Futariuum's Gate · EA $9.99 23 69% 690 $6.9k (exactly $6,893) Gloomy Washer

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.