Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Robots

Only 19 developers shipped a Robot Deckbuilding in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mineral Defense, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $98k, ×158 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 36 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 36 announced, ×3.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $300 → $2.6k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,679)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,178)
Top 5% $99k (exactly $98,934)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 41
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Deckbuilding; all of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 838 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SteamWorld Quest: Hand of Gilgamech older $24.99 1,953 87% 59k $1.5M (exactly $1,464,164) Image & Form Games
Colony City 27λ older $10.99 398 87% 12k $131k (exactly $131,221) Bunny Eats Tiger
Ironclad Tactics older $14.99 237 75% 7.1k $107k (exactly $106,579) Zachtronics
Mineral Defense $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Corestone Games
Theseus Protocol older $9.99 317 65% 9.5k $95k (exactly $95,005) YueTang(Xiamen)
Roulette Hero $9.99 260 92% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,922) CLLC Studio
ACE Strategy: Mecha Nova $14.99 115 78% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) EMINA STUDIO
ARC SEED $14.99 89 74% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,023) Massive Galaxy Studios
The Last Craftsman $9.99 74 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) AuraTummyache
Ctrl Alt Deal $19.99 28 85% 840 $17k (exactly $16,792) Only By Midnight Ltd.
Bot Loop $8.99 11 81% 330 $3.0k (exactly $2,967) ciego
Burnstation $11.99 8 100% 240 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Klafti Studio
Maid Mech $2.99 29 96% 870 $2.6k (exactly $2,601) Dark Arrow Studio
MegaBattle $13.99 4 100% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) MadCat Corp, Cavylabs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.