Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Lovecraftian

Only 19 developers shipped a Lovecraftian Deckbuilding in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Magicraft, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $72k, ×151 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $17k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.2M, ×15200 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 56 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 151.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 56 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 19
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3M → $72k → $33k → $145k (still earning) → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 19
Bottom 30% $16k (exactly $16,189)
Median $72k (exactly $71,706)
Top 25% $215k (exactly $214,693)
Top 5% $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965)
Developers, 2 yr 19
Released games 36
Announced 56
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Deckbuilding; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Card Game, Roguelike
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 22,127 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $17k, median $72k, 1 in 4 over $210k, 1 in 20 over $7.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $17k. 4 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  11. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced
  12. + RomancePoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 40 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Magicraft $15.99 15,051 92% 452k $7.2M (exactly $7,219,965) Wave Games
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Decktamer $15.99 2,069 86% 62k $992k (exactly $992,499) Horizon Edge
Roots Devour $14.99 479 68% 14k $215k (exactly $215,406) Rewinding Games
Railroads & Catacombs $19.99 358 73% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) MadRails
SealChain: Call of Blood $8.99 537 56% 16k $145k (exactly $144,829) AliveGameStudio
Fhtagn Simulator older $7.99 535 89% 16k $128k (exactly $128,240) 锁眼工作室
Hunter's Moon: A Sovereign Syndicate Adventure $19.99 205 83% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Crimson Herring Studios
Gods vs Horrors $14.99 254 75% 7.6k $114k (exactly $114,224) Oriol Cosp Games
BLOODLETTER $15.49 229 79% 6.9k $106k (exactly $106,416) ALDAMAMI GAMES
Dark Fairy Tale: Dreamland Survivors $4.99 479 90% 14k $72k (exactly $71,706) BINGOBELL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.