Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Artificial Intelligence

Of 24 developers who shipped an AI Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×5.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $23M, ×49420 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 37 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 5.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 440% on the market, 37 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $390 → $48k → $82k → $2.5k (still earning) → $2.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Top 25% $79k (exactly $78,523)
Top 5% $23M (exactly $23,474,646)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 48
Announced 37
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, PvP, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 39,171 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.5k, 1 in 4 over $78k, 1 in 20 over $23M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Broken Arrow $49.99 25,924 55% 778k $39M (exactly $38,878,223) Steel Balalaika
INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road $69.99 11,180 88% 335k $23M (exactly $23,474,646) LEVEL5 Inc.
Moonbreaker older $29.99 1,289 84% 39k $1.2M (exactly $1,159,713) Unknown Worlds Entertainment
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Lythia: Sigil of Lust $24.99 109 75% 3.3k $82k (exactly $81,717) capture 1
Backpack Dungeon $3.99 656 87% 20k $79k (exactly $78,523) 夜喵
Super Cabbage Kabumi $14.99 125 67% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Vividesca Games
大宋英雄传(SongHeros) · EA $9.99 161 79% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) LazyManGameStudio
Football Rising:Zero to Hero $14.99 54 90% 1.6k $24k (exactly $24,284) Den Spade
Futa Succubus Slay! $12.99 26 65% 780 $10k (exactly $10,132) Npolish

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.