Games › Deckbuilding › Deckbuilding + Artificial Intelligence
Should I ship an AI Deckbuilding?
Deckbuilding + Artificial Intelligence
Of 24 developers who shipped an AI Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $2.5k, ×5.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $23M, ×49420 the market median. Revenue is up 440% on the market; 37 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $359 (exactly $359) |
|---|---|
| Median | $2.5k (exactly $2,516) |
| Top 25% | $79k (exactly $78,523) |
| Top 5% | $23M (exactly $23,474,646) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 24 |
| Released games | 48 |
| Announced | 37 |
| Effort | 3 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | High |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 440% on the market, supply 145% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 27%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Deckbuilding
- effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
- Artificial Intelligence
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
- Systems
- Deckbuilding; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, PvP, RPG
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $49.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, 3D, Anime
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $49.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 39,171 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + AutomationFair
- + Inventory ManagementFair
- + ArcadeFair
- + 2D FighterFair
- + Party GameFair
- + SwordplayFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + Traditional RoguelikeFair
- + LogicFair
- + LovecraftianPoor odds
- + Dating SimPoor odds
- + Visual NovelPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Broken Arrow | $49.99 | 25,924 55% | 778k | $39M (exactly $38,878,223) | Steel Balalaika | |
| | INAZUMA ELEVEN: Victory Road | $69.99 | 11,180 88% | 335k | $23M (exactly $23,474,646) | LEVEL5 Inc. | |
| | Moonbreaker | older | $29.99 | 1,289 84% | 39k | $1.2M (exactly $1,159,713) | Unknown Worlds Entertainment |
| | Backpack Jianghu | $13.99 | 565 80% | 17k | $237k (exactly $237,130) | 背包工作室 | |
| | Feed the Scorchpot | $14.99 | 371 87% | 11k | $167k (exactly $166,839) | Moravian | |
| | Lythia: Sigil of Lust | $24.99 | 109 75% | 3.3k | $82k (exactly $81,717) | capture 1 | |
| | Backpack Dungeon | $3.99 | 656 87% | 20k | $79k (exactly $78,523) | 夜喵 | |
| | Super Cabbage Kabumi | $14.99 | 125 67% | 3.8k | $56k (exactly $56,212) | Vividesca Games | |
| | 大宋英雄传(SongHeros) | · EA | $9.99 | 161 79% | 4.8k | $48k (exactly $48,252) | LazyManGameStudio |
| | Football Rising:Zero to Hero | $14.99 | 54 90% | 1.6k | $24k (exactly $24,284) | Den Spade | |
| | Futa Succubus Slay! | $12.99 | 26 65% | 780 | $10k (exactly $10,132) | Npolish |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.