Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Mystery

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Mystery Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Mystery

Of 46 developers who shipped a Mystery Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 106 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×2.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $81k, ×171 the market median. Revenue is up 80% on the market; 106 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 80% on the market, 106 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Mystery
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.6k → $17k → $3.8k → $599 → $1.1k → $3.8k → $629 (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Mystery: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,077)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $14,809)
Top 5% $81k (exactly $81,058)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 82
Announced 106
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 80% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Mystery
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Story Rich
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 6,137 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $81k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 106 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sol Cesto $13.99 4,838 91% 145k $2.0M (exactly $2,030,509) Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospir… (Tambouille, Géraud Zucchini, Chariospirale)
Iris and the Giant older $17.99 698 87% 21k $377k (exactly $376,711) Louis Rigaud
Sovereign Syndicate older $19.99 573 79% 17k $344k (exactly $343,628) Crimson Herring Studios
Dead Town Tales older $11.99 417 82% 13k $150k (exactly $149,995) 拾遗工作室
Kumitantei: Old-School Slaughter $14.99 314 90% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) Mango Factory
Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator $12.99 208 59% 6.2k $81k (exactly $81,058) Zeitglas
THE SPIRIT LIFT $19.99 118 94% 3.5k $71k (exactly $70,765) prettysmart games
The Magister older $14.99 103 91% 3.1k $46k (exactly $46,319) Nerdook Productions
Arcana of Paradise —The Tower— older $19.99 74 66% 2.2k $44k (exactly $44,378) 株式会社タストα
JARS older $11.99 104 71% 3.1k $37k (exactly $37,409) Mousetrap Games
Echo Generation 2 $24.99 41 73% 1.2k $31k (exactly $30,738) Cococucumber
Vegangsters $12.99 69 92% 2.1k $27k (exactly $26,889) Poison Pill Games
Love, Internet, and Murder Magic $3.99 217 72% 6.5k $26k (exactly $25,975) Renka
全网有点怪 $7.99 106 66% 3.2k $25k (exactly $25,408) Aluba Van+
Dreamcards $9.99 82 98% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) Soneka Games
Desktop Detective $4.99 144 88% 4.3k $22k (exactly $21,557) Conradical Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.