Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Nature

Of 44 developers who shipped a Nature Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, ×1.3 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×290 the market median. Revenue is up 425% on the market; 78 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 425% on the market, 78 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.6k → $2.2k → $299 → $898 → $8.8k → $1.2k (still earning) → $298 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $6.4k (exactly $6,437)
Top 5% $138k (exactly $137,515)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 84
Announced 78
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 425% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Battler, Roguelike, Strategy
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 5,655 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $6.4k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. Nearly all of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
Ravenbound older $29.99 770 53% 23k $693k (exactly $692,769) Systemic Reaction™
Kabuto Park $4.99 4,329 99% 130k $648k (exactly $648,051) Doot
Zoominoes $14.99 549 91% 16k $247k (exactly $246,885) Starlight Games inc.
Crop Rotation older $9.99 508 94% 15k $152k (exactly $152,248) Sprouting Potato
Hive Blight · EA $12.49 367 94% 11k $138k (exactly $137,515) OptizOnion
Koi Farm older $2.99 907 94% 27k $81k (exactly $81,358) Job Talle, 3xBlast
Super Cabbage Kabumi $14.99 125 67% 3.8k $56k (exactly $56,212) Vividesca Games
Siegebreaker older $11.99 72 86% 2.2k $26k (exactly $25,898) Immortal Forge
The Last Craftsman $9.99 74 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) AuraTummyache
Dimwood $14.99 47 100% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Inkspun LLC
Wild City $9.99 63 88% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,881) Monka Studios
GUG $5.99 49 34% 1.5k $8.8k (exactly $8,805) Martian Lawyers Club
Spirit Dungeon · EA $9.99 27 51% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) Nemora Games
JACKPOISON $8.99 25 44% 750 $6.7k (exactly $6,742) oyajinojiike

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.