Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Martial Arts

Of 24 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 23 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×7.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×378 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 23 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 23 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.4k → $30k → $48k → $5.9k → $38k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $537 (exactly $537)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $37,781)
Top 5% $237k (exactly $237,130)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 36
Announced 23
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Deckbuilding; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Roguelite, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 8,145 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 23 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
暖雪 Warm Snow older $17.99 35,270 92% 1.1M $19M (exactly $19,035,219) BadMudStudio
The Matchless Kungfu $19.99 6,755 79% 203k $4.1M (exactly $4,050,973) HuanMos Game
Fights in Tight Spaces older $24.99 3,545 90% 106k $2.7M (exactly $2,657,686) Ground Shatter
天外武林 (Traveler of Wuxia) older $24.99 3,151 85% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,305) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Nitro Kid older $19.99 410 89% 12k $246k (exactly $245,877) Wildboy Studios
Backpack Jianghu $13.99 565 80% 17k $237k (exactly $237,130) 背包工作室
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf
大宋英雄传(SongHeros) · EA $9.99 161 79% 4.8k $48k (exactly $48,252) LazyManGameStudio
2 Fights in 2 Tight Spaces · EA $12.99 115 84% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Ground Shatter
Guardians of Dao · EA $19.99 63 74% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) George Financial Holding Ltd.
Morningstar: Book of the Fallen $14.99 67 94% 2.0k $30k (exactly $30,130) Droid Productions
The King Of Truancy $9.99 68 79% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) Qulong Game
Kungfu Card · EA $4.99 125 73% 3.8k $19k (exactly $18,712) ZeroCastle Game Studio, Miwu Studio
Punch to Glory $6.99 42 92% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Musa GUNGOR

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.