Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Dragons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dragon Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Dragons

Of 21 developers who shipped a Dragon Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×4.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.7k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $370k, ×595 the market median. Revenue is up 360% on the market; 56 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 360% on the market, 56 announced, ×4.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Dragons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $374k → $60 → $3.7k → $899 (still earning) → $147k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Dragons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $3.7k (exactly $3,742)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $34,783)
Top 5% $374k (exactly $373,817)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 56
Announced 56
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $10.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 360% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 29%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Dragons
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Deckbuilding; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Battler, Card Game
Price point
$10.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Family Friendly, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $10.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 2,923 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $3.7k, 1 in 4 over $34k, 1 in 20 over $370k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 8 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
DRAGON QUEST MONSTERS: The Dark Prince older $39.99 1,158 71% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,389,253) Square Enix
None Shall Intrude $14.99 934 73% 28k $420k (exactly $420,020) Aeterna Ludi
Clank! $22.99 542 92% 16k $374k (exactly $373,817) Dire Wolf
Ruff Ghanor older $19.99 435 85% 13k $261k (exactly $260,869) DX Gameworks
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Mamon King $12.99 603 90% 18k $235k (exactly $234,989) LiTMUS Co., Ltd.
Feed the Scorchpot $14.99 371 87% 11k $167k (exactly $166,839) Moravian
Batomon Showdown $14.99 327 87% 9.8k $147k (exactly $147,052) berrymint
Dragon Front: Adventures $19.99 58 89% 1.7k $35k (exactly $34,783) High Voltage Software, Inc.
The Dragonhood older $7.99 83 73% 2.5k $20k (exactly $19,895) Scrambled Games
Ariokan™ - create your cards, break the Meta $29.99 18 94% 540 $16k (exactly $16,195) Fatum Games SL
Warena $9.99 42 52% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,587) Part Time Monkey
King of Tokyo - Richard Garfield $19.99 16 68% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,595) Breakfirst
Crouching Tiger Hidden Hanafuda $10.99 12 91% 360 $4.0k (exactly $3,956) Garuru Software labs inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.