Do I ship it?

GamesDeckbuildingDeckbuilding + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Deckbuilding?

Deckbuilding + Female Protagonist

Of 96 developers who shipped a Female-Led Deckbuilding in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 166 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×16 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1364 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 166 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 166 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Deckbuilding + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 96
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $4.6k → $46k → $20k → $8.5k → $13k → $7.8k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Deckbuilding + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 96
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,439)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,796)
Top 25% $56k (exactly $56,212)
Top 5% $648k (exactly $648,051)
Developers, 2 yr 96
Released games 220
Announced 166
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 245% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Deckbuilding
effort 3 / 10 · high · card pools and run logic
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Deckbuilding; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Card Game, Strategy, Card Battler
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 17,240 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $56k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 7 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 166 games are announced against 76 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Deckbuilding with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + AutomationFair44 devs · median $2.8k · 51 announced
  2. + Inventory ManagementFair98 devs · median $2.5k · 137 announced
  3. + ArcadeFair170 devs · median $1.9k · 234 announced
  4. + 2D FighterFair17 devs · median $959 · 12 announced
  5. + Party GameFair22 devs · median $719 · 30 announced
  6. + SwordplayFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  7. + Point & ClickFair34 devs · median $598 · 36 announced
  8. + Traditional RoguelikeFair53 devs · median $537 · 79 announced
  9. + LogicFair84 devs · median $419 · 118 announced
  10. + LovecraftianPoor odds19 devs · median $72k · 56 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $30k · 31 announced
  12. + Visual NovelPoor odds36 devs · median $26k · 64 announced

All 141 pairs on the Deckbuilding page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chrono Ark older $24.99 12,623 90% 379k $9.5M (exactly $9,463,463) Al Fine
Thronebreaker: The Witcher Tales older $19.99 15,665 89% 470k $9.4M (exactly $9,394,300) CD PROJEKT RED
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
Hand of Fate 2 older $29.99 5,273 84% 158k $4.7M (exactly $4,744,118) Defiant Development
Backpack Hero older $19.99 7,423 85% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,451,573) Jaspel
Lost in Random™ older $29.99 4,479 88% 134k $4.0M (exactly $4,029,756) Zoink, Thunderful
Black Book older $24.99 5,306 93% 159k $4.0M (exactly $3,977,908) Morteshka
One Step From Eden older $19.99 6,039 94% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,621,588) Thomas Moon Kang
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days older $69.99 1,186 76% 36k $2.5M (exactly $2,490,244) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
Cardfight!! Vanguard Dear Days 2 $69.99 631 67% 19k $1.3M (exactly $1,324,911) FURYU Corporation, LANCARSE Ltd.
In Falsus $39.99 788 89% 24k $945k (exactly $945,364) lowiro
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Kabuto Park $4.99 4,329 99% 130k $648k (exactly $648,051) Doot
Dream of Corpse Lady $9.99 2,115 93% 63k $634k (exactly $633,866) HT3 Studio
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
One Turn Kill $7.99 1,478 95% 44k $354k (exactly $354,277) DenDen
Witch's Apocalyptic Journey $8.99 1,282 84% 38k $346k (exactly $345,755) MeowAlive
Kumitantei: Old-School Slaughter $14.99 314 90% 9.4k $141k (exactly $141,206) Mango Factory

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.