Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Card Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Card Game?

Card Game

Of 1,736 developers who shipped a Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 2,883 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $750, ×6.3 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $220k, ×1877 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 2,883 games are announced against 1,127 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 2,883 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 1,736
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $2.2k → $2.3k → $1.7k → $1.3k → $1.7k → $599 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 1,736
Bottom 30% $178 (exactly $178)
Median $748 (exactly $748)
Top 25% $9.1k (exactly $9,109)
Top 5% $223k (exactly $223,374)
Developers, 2 yr 1,736
Released games 4,337
Announced 2,883
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Card Game
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 347,972 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $750, 1 in 4 over $9.1k, 1 in 20 over $220k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 821 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 2,883 games are announced against 1,127 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Card Game

45 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Card Game + Steampunk Fair $7.6k 15 devs
  2. Card Game + Dogs Fair $1.5k 11 devs
  3. Card Game + Artificial Intelligence Fair $719 40 devs
  4. Card Game + Lovecraftian Poor odds $16k 23 devs
  5. Card Game + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $8.1k 27 devs
  6. Card Game + Female Protagonist Poor odds $7.8k 104 devs
  7. Card Game + Psychological Horror Poor odds $7.5k 43 devs
  8. Card Game + Romance Poor odds $6.9k 37 devs
  9. Card Game + Horror Poor odds $5.4k 80 devs
  10. Card Game + Martial Arts Poor odds $4.7k 20 devs
  11. Card Game + Faith Poor odds $3.6k 13 devs
  12. Card Game + Pirates Poor odds $2.9k 10 devs
  13. Card Game + Dystopian Poor odds $2.7k 26 devs
  14. Card Game + Crime Poor odds $2.7k 14 devs
  15. Card Game + Historical Poor odds $1.9k 60 devs
  16. Card Game + Alternate History Poor odds $1.9k 13 devs
  17. Card Game + Detective Poor odds $1.9k 23 devs
  18. Card Game + Dragons Poor odds $1.7k 26 devs
  19. Card Game + Capitalism Poor odds $1.6k 47 devs
  20. Card Game + Medieval Poor odds $1.5k 170 devs
  21. Card Game + Cats Poor odds $1.5k 35 devs
  22. Card Game + Western Poor odds $1.5k 15 devs
  23. Card Game + Mythology Poor odds $1.4k 61 devs
  24. Card Game + Demons Poor odds $1.3k 50 devs
  25. Card Game + Fantasy Poor odds $1.2k 546 devs
  26. Card Game + Robots Poor odds $1.2k 15 devs
  27. Card Game + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.2k 42 devs
  28. Card Game + Modern Poor odds $1.1k 32 devs
  29. Card Game + Magic Poor odds $955 211 devs
  30. Card Game + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $955 177 devs
  31. Card Game + War Poor odds $955 35 devs
  32. Card Game + Mystery Poor odds $932 60 devs
  33. Card Game + Aliens Poor odds $839 28 devs
  34. Card Game + Futuristic Poor odds $746 54 devs
  35. Card Game + Sci-fi Poor odds $719 123 devs
  36. Card Game + Cyberpunk Poor odds $719 54 devs
  37. Card Game + Space Poor odds $719 54 devs
  38. Card Game + Psychological Poor odds $718 34 devs
  39. Card Game + Gothic Poor odds $659 18 devs
  40. Card Game + Supernatural Poor odds $599 30 devs
  41. Card Game + Noir Poor odds $535 27 devs
  42. Card Game + Military Poor odds $359 19 devs
  43. Card Game + Zombies Poor odds $299 19 devs
  44. Card Game + Nature Dead $300 48 devs
  45. Card Game + World War II Dead $210 7 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Slay the Spire 2019 · $144M Slay the Spire 2 2026 · EA · $138M Inscryption 2021 · $81M Balatro 2024 · $72M Library Of Ruina 2021 · $37M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Spire older $24.99 191,765 97% 5.8M $144M (exactly $143,766,220) Mega Crit
Slay the Spire 2 · EA $24.99 183,764 61% 5.5M $138M (exactly $137,767,871) Mega Crit
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Balatro older $14.99 160,715 97% 4.8M $72M (exactly $72,273,536) LocalThunk
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Tabletop Simulator older $19.99 46,875 95% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,110,937) Berserk Games
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Loop Hero older $14.99 33,816 92% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,207,055) Four Quarters
9 Kings · EA $19.99 21,352 92% 641k $13M (exactly $12,804,794) Sad Socket
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Monster Train 2 $24.99 8,647 95% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,482,656) Shiny Shoe
Vampire Crawlers: The Turbo Wildcard from Vampire Survivors $9.99 18,587 96% 558k $5.6M (exactly $5,570,524) poncle, Nosebleed Interactive
Gamble With Your Friends $7.99 18,883 89% 566k $4.5M (exactly $4,526,255) TEAM GWYF
Super Fantasy Kingdom · EA $19.99 5,630 86% 169k $3.4M (exactly $3,376,311) Super Fantasy Games
StarVaders $24.99 3,760 97% 113k $2.8M (exactly $2,818,872) Pengonauts

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.