Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Card Game?

Card Game + Gothic

Only 18 developers shipped a Gothic Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Trainee Death Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 55 more are announced, ×4.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $660, ×1.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×661 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 55 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 55 announced, ×4.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 18
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $25k → $25k → $599 (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 18
Bottom 30% $210 (exactly $210)
Median $659 (exactly $659)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,986)
Top 5% $314k (exactly $313,756)
Developers, 2 yr 18
Released games 34
Announced 55
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 160% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Card Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Card Battler
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Hand-drawn
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 2,569 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $660, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 7 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 55 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Trainee Death Simulator $5.99 1,746 92% 52k $314k (exactly $313,756) Bone Nail
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
Erannorth Chronicles older $20.99 407 85% 12k $256k (exactly $256,288) Spyridon Thalassinos
Deliverance & Reign older $7.99 106 80% 3.2k $25k (exactly $25,408) One Up Plus
Claymores of the Lost Kingdom $9.99 83 67% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,875) Ultaan Games
CARD QUEST $9.99 72 69% 2.2k $22k (exactly $21,578) MEOW STORE GAME
Fortune Seller $6.99 81 85% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,986) Kiwick
Summoner's Gambit $7.99 69 52% 2.1k $17k (exactly $16,539) Billion Studio
Ashes of Morgravia $11.99 43 67% 1.3k $15k (exactly $15,467) background blur.
Spider Solitaire F older $4.99 23 39% 690 $3.4k (exactly $3,443) ESQUADRA,inc.
Tears of the Maker $5.00 8 100% 240 $1.2k (exactly $1,200) 8-Bit Waves
Escape Ruin · EA $10.99 2 50% 60 $659 (exactly $659) To The Core Games
Problematic $4.99 4 100% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Galactrex Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.