Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Card Game?

Card Game + Lovecraftian

Of 23 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 50 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $16k, ×34 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.6k; 1 in 20 cleared $990k, ×2089 the market median. Revenue is up 210% on the market; 50 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 34.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 210% on the market, 50 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.3k → $114k → $7.5k → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $2.5k (exactly $2,516)
Median $16k (exactly $16,189)
Top 25% $178k (exactly $177,511)
Top 5% $992k (exactly $992,499)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 47
Announced 50
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 210% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Card Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Roguelike
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 6,898 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.6k, median $16k, 1 in 4 over $170k, 1 in 20 over $990k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.6k. 6 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 50 games are announced against 10 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cultist Simulator older $19.99 10,496 82% 315k $6.3M (exactly $6,294,451) Weather Factory
WORLD OF HORROR older $19.99 8,991 89% 270k $5.4M (exactly $5,391,903) panstasz
Depersonalization older $19.99 6,041 92% 181k $3.6M (exactly $3,622,788) MeowNature
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Decktamer $15.99 2,069 86% 62k $992k (exactly $992,499) Horizon Edge
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
Roots Devour $14.99 479 68% 14k $215k (exactly $215,406) Rewinding Games
Railroads & Catacombs $19.99 358 73% 11k $215k (exactly $214,693) MadRails
Endless Voyage / 无尽航线 older $16.99 407 65% 12k $207k (exactly $207,448) Dalaran Game Studio
Starless Abyss $19.99 296 83% 8.9k $178k (exactly $177,511) Konafa Games
Hunter's Moon: A Sovereign Syndicate Adventure $19.99 205 83% 6.2k $123k (exactly $122,938) Crimson Herring Studios
Gods vs Horrors $14.99 254 75% 7.6k $114k (exactly $114,224) Oriol Cosp Games
BLOODLETTER $15.49 229 79% 6.9k $106k (exactly $106,416) ALDAMAMI GAMES
Fortune Seller $6.99 81 85% 2.4k $17k (exactly $16,986) Kiwick

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.