Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Card Game?

Card Game + LGBTQ+

Of 27 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 2 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.1k, ×68 the market's $120 for a 2 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.7k; 1 in 20 cleared $2.4M, ×20508 the market median. Revenue is up 1930% on the market; 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 68.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 1930% on the market, 30 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.8k → $6.9k → $1.5k → $37k → $108k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Median $8.1k (exactly $8,095)
Top 25% $208k (exactly $208,096)
Top 5% $2.4M (exactly $2,440,457)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 64
Announced 30
Effort 2 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1930% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
2 / 10 · static 2D art, simple logic
Systems
Card Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Adventure, Card Battler
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Funny, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 38,714 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.7k, median $8.1k, 1 in 4 over $200k, 1 in 20 over $2.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.7k. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sultan's Game $24.99 25,061 93% 752k $19M (exactly $18,788,232) Double Cross
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
I Was a Teenage Exocolonist older $24.99 4,443 96% 133k $3.3M (exactly $3,330,917) Northway Games
Poker Night at the Inventory $9.99 8,143 94% 244k $2.4M (exactly $2,440,457) Skunkape Games
CARIMARA: Beneath the forlorn limbs $4.99 2,752 96% 83k $412k (exactly $411,974) Bastinus Rex
Cursed Words: The Word Game That Isn't $14.99 698 95% 21k $314k (exactly $313,891) Buried Things
Youtubers Life 3 $19.99 468 50% 14k $281k (exactly $280,660) UPLAY Online
神树残响(Echoes of the Divine Tree) $11.99 601 94% 18k $216k (exactly $216,180) Seventeen horns
Battle Suit Aces $19.99 347 90% 10k $208k (exactly $208,096) Trinket Studios
Astatos · EA older $14.99 298 82% 8.9k $134k (exactly $134,011) Studio Klondike Australia
FUTA FUCKS FEMBOYS $12.99 276 88% 8.3k $108k (exactly $107,557) Horny Capybara Studio
Sexorcism: Lust Confession $7.99 277 70% 8.3k $66k (exactly $66,397) Kinky Business Group
Hyperspace Deck Command $19.99 91 95% 2.7k $55k (exactly $54,573) Sleeper Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.