Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Card Game?

Card Game + Robots

Only 15 developers shipped a Robot Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Mineral Defense, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×5.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $98k, ×158 the market median. Revenue is up 860% on the market; 35 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 860% on the market, 35 announced, ×5.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $22k → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $120 (exactly $120)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $40k (exactly $40,023)
Top 5% $99k (exactly $98,934)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 41
Announced 35
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 860% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 29%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Card Game; all of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Roguelike, Roguelite
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 808 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $98k.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
SteamWorld Quest: Hand of Gilgamech older $24.99 1,953 87% 59k $1.5M (exactly $1,464,164) Image & Form Games
Colony City 27λ older $10.99 398 87% 12k $131k (exactly $131,221) Bunny Eats Tiger
Ironclad Tactics older $14.99 237 75% 7.1k $107k (exactly $106,579) Zachtronics
Mineral Defense $14.99 220 90% 6.6k $99k (exactly $98,934) Corestone Games
Theseus Protocol older $9.99 317 65% 9.5k $95k (exactly $95,005) YueTang(Xiamen)
Roulette Hero $9.99 260 92% 7.8k $78k (exactly $77,922) CLLC Studio
ACE Strategy: Mecha Nova $14.99 115 78% 3.5k $52k (exactly $51,716) EMINA STUDIO
ARC SEED $14.99 89 74% 2.7k $40k (exactly $40,023) Massive Galaxy Studios
The Last Craftsman $9.99 74 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) AuraTummyache
Ctrl Alt Deal $19.99 28 85% 840 $17k (exactly $16,792) Only By Midnight Ltd.
Burnstation $11.99 8 100% 240 $2.9k (exactly $2,878) Klafti Studio
Circuit Stance $9.99 4 75% 120 $1.2k (exactly $1,199) Fluffy Brown
Where's my Hentai Deck? $1.99 9 77% 270 $537 (exactly $537) Kopon Games
Cyber Breaker $6.99 1 100% 30 $210 (exactly $210) ShadowHawkDragon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.