Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Western

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Western Card Game?

Card Game + Western

Only 15 developers shipped a Western Card Game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Once a Porn a Time: Porn and Cards, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 22 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $38k, ×61 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 22 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 22 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Western
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $3.8k → $180 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Western: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,646)
Top 5% $38k (exactly $38,224)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 26
Announced 22
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 15% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Western
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Card Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Card Battler, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 79% positive over 377 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $9.6k, 1 in 20 over $38k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 22 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
West Sweety older $1.99 3,227 83% 97k $193k (exactly $192,652) AFOG
Once a Porn a Time: Porn and Cards $14.99 85 72% 2.6k $38k (exactly $38,224) OPT Studio
Brawl To The West $8.99 139 71% 4.2k $37k (exactly $37,488) GagaRush
WAGON $10.99 38 94% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,529) de_husk
Paperback Adventures · EA older $14.99 27 92% 810 $12k (exactly $12,142) Tim Fowers, Jeff Krause, Skye Larsen, A… (Tim Fowers, Jeff Krause, Skye Larsen, Alex Krause)
Boogey Hunters $6.99 46 84% 1.4k $9.6k (exactly $9,646) Keep The Engine Games
Duelite $6.99 24 83% 720 $5.0k (exactly $5,033) Betaking Studios
DEAD MAN'S HAND: Card Roulette Action older $4.99 31 100% 930 $4.6k (exactly $4,641) Black Garden Studios
Poker Simulator older $4.99 27 51% 810 $4.0k (exactly $4,042) netmin games
Roulette Heist $6.99 18 94% 540 $3.8k (exactly $3,775) DreamArk Lab
Luck of the Draw $4.99 17 100% 510 $2.5k (exactly $2,545) SuperFake Games
Risk & Riches $9.99 5 100% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) Growlery Games
Cards from the West · EA $4.99 2 100% 60 $299 (exactly $299) guilemus
Double Barrel Desperado $2.99 3 100% 90 $269 (exactly $269) Gentoo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.