Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + War

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a War Card Game?

Card Game + War

Of 35 developers who shipped a War Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 61 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $960, ×1.5 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $530k, ×856 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 61 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 61 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + War
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.9k → $1.1k → $1.3k → $120 → $25k → $13k → $629 (still earning) → $240 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + War: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $955 (exactly $955)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,584)
Top 5% $538k (exactly $537,841)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 119
Announced 61
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 34%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
War
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Card Game; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Card Battler
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 6,227 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $960, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $530k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 17 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 61 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Commander Quest $11.99 2,804 74% 84k $1.0M (exactly $1,008,599) Flyway Games, Inc.
Hexarchy older $19.99 1,231 83% 37k $738k (exactly $738,231) Main Tank Software
FrostBound $14.99 1,196 82% 36k $538k (exactly $537,841) Lyra Studio
Warriors of the Nile 2 older $14.99 1,180 88% 35k $531k (exactly $530,646) Stove Studio
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
There Are No Orcs $8.99 1,188 93% 36k $320k (exactly $320,404) BaseTrade Studio
Blood Rage: Digital Edition older $19.99 477 58% 14k $286k (exactly $286,057) Endava
Raiders of the North Sea older $14.99 238 86% 7.1k $107k (exactly $107,029) Dire Wolf
Third Front: WWII older $7.99 314 59% 9.4k $75k (exactly $75,266) Hamsters Gaming
Deckline $3.99 294 86% 8.8k $35k (exactly $35,192) Room Games, KREIDPIX
Vestiges: Fallen Tribes $24.99 36 80% 1.1k $27k (exactly $26,989) WanadevStudio
Flaregate Network $14.99 58 77% 1.7k $26k (exactly $26,083) Keycard Studio, LLC
Tuggowar $7.99 103 91% 3.1k $25k (exactly $24,689) Tension Games
Auto Battle Girl $9.99 52 80% 1.6k $16k (exactly $15,584) Mutual Fun Studio
Dictator Simulator: Gradnar $4.99 84 97% 2.5k $13k (exactly $12,575) GortagonGame

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.