Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Nature

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Nature Card Game?

Card Game + Nature

Of 48 developers who shipped a Nature Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 69 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $300 in the last 2 years and $450 over 4, against a market of $480 for a 3 / 10 build. 28 developers shipped in the last year and 69 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 0.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 69 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Nature
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 48
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $2.1k → $2.2k → $300 → $1.5k → $449 → $300 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Nature: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 48
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $300 (exactly $300)
Top 25% $2.4k (exactly $2,398)
Top 5% $153k (exactly $152,771)
Developers, 2 yr 48
Released games 113
Announced 69
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Nature
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Card Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Battler, Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 8,254 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $300, 1 in 4 over $2.3k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. Nearly all of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 69 games are announced against 28 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wingspan older $19.99 9,807 94% 294k $5.9M (exactly $5,881,258) Monster Couch
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Spirit Island older $24.99 1,545 91% 46k $1.2M (exactly $1,158,286) Handelabra Games Inc.
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
Zoominoes $14.99 549 91% 16k $247k (exactly $246,885) Starlight Games inc.
Golf Peaks older $4.99 1,076 95% 32k $161k (exactly $161,077) Afterburn
Stackmon $13.99 364 75% 11k $153k (exactly $152,771) Riftpoint Entertainment
Crop Rotation older $9.99 508 94% 15k $152k (exactly $152,248) Sprouting Potato
Fate of the World older $9.99 398 79% 12k $119k (exactly $119,281) Red Redemption
Solitaire Beach Season older $14.99 88 76% 2.6k $40k (exactly $39,574) Creobit
Nature Game System $19.99 49 73% 1.5k $29k (exactly $29,385) North Star Digital Games
The Last Craftsman $9.99 74 94% 2.2k $22k (exactly $22,178) AuraTummyache
Dimwood $14.99 47 100% 1.4k $21k (exactly $21,136) Inkspun LLC
Wild City $9.99 63 88% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,881) Monka Studios
K2: Digital Edition $14.99 20 85% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Devon Games
Wild Country $24.99 11 54% 330 $8.2k (exactly $8,247) Lost Native
Castaway Hand $9.99 22 36% 660 $6.6k (exactly $6,593) BAOCHUAN

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.