Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Card Game?

Card Game + Psychological

Of 34 developers who shipped a Psychological Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 3 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $720, ×1.5 the market's $480 for a 3 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $81k, ×171 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 65 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 65 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 34
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $2.7k → $1.7k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 34
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $718 (exactly $718)
Top 25% $7.7k (exactly $7,670)
Top 5% $81k (exactly $81,058)
Developers, 2 yr 34
Released games 54
Announced 65
Effort 3 / 10
AI-buildability High
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is high: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
3 / 10 · small 2D action, light systems
Systems
Card Game; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Adventure, Card Battler
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Dark, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 2,322 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $720, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $81k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Death Howl $19.99 1,301 92% 39k $780k (exactly $780,210) The Outer Zone
Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator $12.99 208 59% 6.2k $81k (exactly $81,058) Zeitglas
Photogenic Minds : Identity older $19.99 89 88% 2.7k $53k (exactly $53,373) 727 Not Hound
Deckline $3.99 294 86% 8.8k $35k (exactly $35,192) Room Games, KREIDPIX
The Killing Stone · EA $12.99 79 94% 2.4k $31k (exactly $30,786) Question
Dreamcards $9.99 82 98% 2.5k $25k (exactly $24,575) Soneka Games
Deadly Heart Gambit $6.99 107 90% 3.2k $22k (exactly $22,438) Blink Hydrate ブリンク
Lust Poker Club $7.99 89 78% 2.7k $21k (exactly $21,333) Cutie Booty
Blackjack Descent $7.99 88 79% 2.6k $21k (exactly $21,094) CGI LAB GAMES
Dungeon Tells $7.99 32 75% 960 $7.7k (exactly $7,670) Ace Benoff
Circular Fallacy $5.99 42 85% 1.3k $7.5k (exactly $7,547) 非稳态物质-Unstable Matter

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.