Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Card Game?

Card Game + Horror

Of 80 developers who shipped a Horror Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 126 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.4k, ×11 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $720k, ×1523 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 126 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 126 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.7k → $5.7k → $2.3k → $1.1k → $13k → $8.1k → $2.5k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $538 (exactly $538)
Median $5.4k (exactly $5,396)
Top 25% $35k (exactly $35,192)
Top 5% $723k (exactly $723,238)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 162
Announced 126
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Card Game; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Deckbuilding, Card Battler
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 13,838 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $540, median $5.4k, 1 in 4 over $35k, 1 in 20 over $720k.

3 in 10 developers made under $540. 6 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 126 games are announced against 54 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Inscryption older $19.99 135,017 96% 4.1M $81M (exactly $80,969,695) Daniel Mullins Games
Library Of Ruina older $29.99 40,605 94% 1.2M $37M (exactly $36,532,318) ProjectMoon
WORLD OF HORROR older $19.99 8,991 89% 270k $5.4M (exactly $5,391,903) panstasz
Ring of Pain older $19.99 3,256 91% 98k $2.0M (exactly $1,952,623) Simon Boxer, Twice Different
Menace from the Deep $16.99 2,466 84% 74k $1.3M (exactly $1,256,920) Flat Lab
Forbidden Solitaire $15.99 2,245 96% 67k $1.1M (exactly $1,076,926) Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertai… (Grey Alien Games, Night Signal Entertainment)
Decktamer $15.99 2,069 86% 62k $992k (exactly $992,499) Horizon Edge
Deck of Haunts $19.99 1,206 84% 36k $723k (exactly $723,238) Mantis
CARIMARA: Beneath the forlorn limbs $4.99 2,752 96% 83k $412k (exactly $411,974) Bastinus Rex
The Fabulous Fear Machine older $17.99 542 89% 16k $293k (exactly $292,517) Fictiorama Studios
The Horror at Highrook $19.99 461 90% 14k $276k (exactly $276,462) Nullpointer Games
Roots Devour $14.99 479 68% 14k $215k (exactly $215,406) Rewinding Games
Bogos Binted? $5.49 1,134 91% 34k $187k (exactly $186,770) underbadger
Shards of Order $9.99 578 90% 17k $173k (exactly $173,227) Fardust
Pirate's Gambit $9.99 448 89% 13k $134k (exactly $134,266) Domestic Black Cat

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.