Do I ship it?

GamesCard GameCard Game + Martial Arts

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Martial-Arts Card Game?

Card Game + Martial Arts

Of 20 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.7k, ×7.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $120k, ×205 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 25 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 7.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 25 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Martial Arts
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 20
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.9k → $38k (still earning) → $4.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Martial Arts: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 20
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $4.7k (exactly $4,676)
Top 25% $38k (exactly $37,781)
Top 5% $129k (exactly $128,991)
Developers, 2 yr 20
Released games 38
Announced 25
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Martial Arts
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Card Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Card Battler, Deckbuilding
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 70% positive over 1,062 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $4.7k, 1 in 4 over $37k, 1 in 20 over $120k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fights in Tight Spaces older $24.99 3,545 90% 106k $2.7M (exactly $2,657,686) Ground Shatter
天外武林 (Traveler of Wuxia) older $24.99 3,151 85% 95k $2.4M (exactly $2,362,305) 香港商河洛互動娛樂股份有限公司
Nitro Kid older $19.99 410 89% 12k $246k (exactly $245,877) Wildboy Studios
Stack to Ascension $12.99 331 54% 9.9k $129k (exactly $128,991) Stack to Ascension
Yomi 2 $19.99 104 92% 3.1k $62k (exactly $62,369) Sirlin Games
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf
2 Fights in 2 Tight Spaces · EA $12.99 115 84% 3.5k $45k (exactly $44,816) Ground Shatter
Guardians of Dao · EA $19.99 63 74% 1.9k $38k (exactly $37,781) George Financial Holding Ltd.
The King Of Truancy $9.99 68 79% 2.0k $20k (exactly $20,380) Qulong Game
Kungfu Card · EA $4.99 125 73% 3.8k $19k (exactly $18,712) ZeroCastle Game Studio, Miwu Studio
Punch to Glory $6.99 42 92% 1.3k $8.8k (exactly $8,807) Musa GUNGOR
荡天下 $10.99 18 61% 540 $5.9k (exactly $5,935) Herry013, Herry013
Zodiac Mountain · EA $12.99 12 91% 360 $4.7k (exactly $4,676) Mystic Road

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.