Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Historical Card Game?

Card Game + Historical

Of 60 developers who shipped a Historical Card Game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 112 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×579 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 112 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue down 90% on the market, 112 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Card Game + Historical
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 60
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $16k → $8.8k → $1.9k → $3.6k → $6.1k → $5.9k → $1.7k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Card Game + Historical: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 60
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,918)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $16,147)
Top 5% $364k (exactly $363,758)
Developers, 2 yr 60
Released games 179
Announced 112
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 26%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Card Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · rules engine and card data
Historical
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Card Game; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Deckbuilding, Strategy, Roguelite
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $17.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $17.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 4,220 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 112 games are announced against 40 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Card Game with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + SteampunkFair15 devs · median $7.6k · 18 announced
  2. + Immersive SimFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 43 announced
  3. + Inventory ManagementFair65 devs · median $1.6k · 86 announced
  4. + DogsFair11 devs · median $1.5k · 8 announced
  5. + MahjongFair28 devs · median $748 · 24 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair40 devs · median $719 · 54 announced
  7. + GamblingFair126 devs · median $600 · 167 announced
  8. + Point & ClickFair62 devs · median $539 · 69 announced
  9. + Hidden ObjectFair17 devs · median $537 · 15 announced
  10. + Board GameFair293 devs · median $479 · 382 announced
  11. + PuzzleFair198 devs · median $479 · 206 announced
  12. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $18k · 48 announced

All 159 pairs on the Card Game page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Card Shark 2022 · $1.8M Through the Ages 2018 · $1.0M Warriors of the Nile 2020 · $940k Twilight Struggle 2016 · $770k Hexarchy 2023 · $738k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Card Shark older $19.99 2,965 90% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,778,110) Nerial
Through the Ages older $15.99 2,188 90% 66k $1.0M (exactly $1,049,584) CGE Digital
Warriors of the Nile older $12.99 2,412 79% 72k $940k (exactly $939,956) Stove Studio
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Hexarchy older $19.99 1,231 83% 37k $738k (exactly $738,231) Main Tank Software
Warriors of the Nile 2 older $14.99 1,180 88% 35k $531k (exactly $530,646) Stove Studio
Half-Demon Shinobi $10.99 1,242 89% 37k $409k (exactly $409,487) 樹懶叫工作室, 紳士吉娃, Maker製造機
HEART of CROWN Online $29.99 412 84% 12k $371k (exactly $370,676) illuCalab, FLIPFLOPs, quziralab.
Ways of Alchemy $17.99 674 74% 20k $364k (exactly $363,758) RocketBrush Games
Shadowhand: RPG Card Game older $16.99 668 82% 20k $340k (exactly $340,480) Grey Alien Games
NUTMEG! A Nostalgic Deckbuilding Football Manager $24.99 378 89% 11k $283k (exactly $283,387) Sumo Digital, Sumo Digital Academy
Rogue Hex $19.99 260 89% 7.8k $156k (exactly $155,922) Topstitch Games
Three Kingdoms:BOND · EA $7.49 408 83% 12k $92k (exactly $91,678) Get Wrapped Up Inc.
Sanatorium - A Mental Asylum Simulator $12.99 208 59% 6.2k $81k (exactly $81,058) Zeitglas
Worlds Upon The Wind $9.99 238 99% 7.1k $71k (exactly $71,329) Max Shawabkeh
皇帝游戏：天下-皇游天下 $8.99 216 96% 6.5k $58k (exactly $58,255) OTTOCOM
Ultimate Hero $9.99 184 65% 5.5k $55k (exactly $55,145) Fishwharf

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.