Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist game?

Capitalism

Of 896 developers who shipped a Capitalist game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,497 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.8k, ×6.0 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $460k, ×970 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 1,497 games are announced against 603 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue flat on the market, 1,497 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 896
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.6k → $2.7k → $3.9k → $5.4k → $5.7k → $3.6k → $2.7k (still earning) → $1.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 896
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $2.8k (exactly $2,844)
Top 25% $26k (exactly $25,774)
Top 5% $461k (exactly $460,725)
Developers, 2 yr 896
Released games 1,907
Announced 1,497
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 90% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 214,741 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $2.8k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $460k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 7 in 10 of the 400 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,497 games are announced against 603 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Capitalism

104 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Racing + Capitalism Strong odds $8.6k 14 devs
  2. Collectathon + Capitalism Strong odds $6.2k 76 devs
  3. Job Simulator + Capitalism Fair $23k 72 devs
  4. Loot + Capitalism Fair $14k 36 devs
  5. Creature Collector + Capitalism Fair $3.2k 38 devs
  6. Idler + Capitalism Fair $2.9k 205 devs
  7. Incremental + Capitalism Fair $2.1k 204 devs
  8. Time Manipulation + Capitalism Fair $1.8k 9 devs
  9. Tower Defense + Capitalism Fair $1.6k 15 devs
  10. Tabletop + Capitalism Fair $807 35 devs
  11. Board Game + Capitalism Fair $748 34 devs
  12. Auto Battler + Capitalism Poor odds $34k 15 devs
  13. Co-op + Capitalism Poor odds $30k 44 devs
  14. Fishing + Capitalism Poor odds $23k 15 devs
  15. Online Co-Op + Capitalism Poor odds $22k 43 devs
  16. Farming Sim + Capitalism Poor odds $19k 44 devs
  17. JRPG + Capitalism Poor odds $19k 9 devs
  18. Agriculture + Capitalism Poor odds $17k 23 devs
  19. Destruction + Capitalism Poor odds $15k 17 devs
  20. Local Multiplayer + Capitalism Poor odds $15k 10 devs
  21. Building + Capitalism Poor odds $14k 224 devs
  22. FPS + Capitalism Poor odds $13k 35 devs
  23. Cooking + Capitalism Poor odds $11k 41 devs
  24. Shooter + Capitalism Poor odds $11k 39 devs
  25. Sandbox + Capitalism Poor odds $11k 219 devs
  26. Immersive Sim + Capitalism Poor odds $10k 222 devs
  27. Life Sim + Capitalism Poor odds $10k 219 devs
  28. Shop Keeper + Capitalism Poor odds $8.4k 135 devs
  29. Driving + Capitalism Poor odds $8.4k 34 devs
  30. Mining + Capitalism Poor odds $7.9k 47 devs
  31. Base Building + Capitalism Poor odds $7.8k 99 devs
  32. City Builder + Capitalism Poor odds $7.7k 72 devs
  33. Inventory Management + Capitalism Poor odds $7.6k 146 devs
  34. Transportation + Capitalism Poor odds $7.2k 23 devs
  35. Open World + Capitalism Poor odds $6.7k 50 devs
  36. PvP + Capitalism Poor odds $6.5k 42 devs
  37. Trading + Capitalism Poor odds $5.9k 166 devs
  38. Exploration + Capitalism Poor odds $5.7k 89 devs
  39. Character Customization + Capitalism Poor odds $5.6k 69 devs
  40. Management + Capitalism Poor odds $5.4k 535 devs
  41. Physics + Capitalism Poor odds $5.0k 54 devs
  42. Procedural Generation + Capitalism Poor odds $5.0k 52 devs
  43. Sports + Capitalism Poor odds $5.0k 17 devs
  44. Economy + Capitalism Poor odds $4.7k 551 devs
  45. RPG + Capitalism Poor odds $4.6k 85 devs
  46. Wargame + Capitalism Poor odds $4.6k 20 devs
  47. Crafting + Capitalism Poor odds $4.6k 99 devs
  48. Investigation + Capitalism Poor odds $4.5k 13 devs
  49. Resource Management + Capitalism Poor odds $4.3k 416 devs
  50. God Game + Capitalism Poor odds $4.3k 26 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B Fallout 76 2020 · $94M Victoria 3 2022 · $62M Prison Architect 2015 · $54M HITMAN World of Assassination 2022 · $53M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Prison Architect older $29.99 59,802 89% 1.8M $54M (exactly $53,803,859) Introversion Software, Double Eleven
HITMAN World of Assassination older $29.99 58,655 87% 1.8M $53M (exactly $52,771,904) IO Interactive A/S
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
Tropico 6 older $39.99 19,837 88% 595k $24M (exactly $23,798,449) Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
The Outer Worlds 2 $69.99 8,450 73% 254k $18M (exactly $17,742,465) Obsidian Entertainment
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
The Bazaar $19.99 14,931 70% 448k $9.0M (exactly $8,954,121) Tempo
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay
News Tower $24.99 4,316 94% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705) Sparrow Night
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.