Do I ship it?

GamesCookingCooking + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Cooking game?

Cooking + Capitalism

Of 41 developers who shipped a Capitalist Cooking game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 83 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $11k, ×24 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $260k, ×551 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 83 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 24.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 83 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Cooking + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 41
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $13k → $52k → $6.7k → $11k → $21k → $19k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Cooking + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 41
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,794)
Median $11k (exactly $11,394)
Top 25% $54k (exactly $53,946)
Top 5% $262k (exactly $261,502)
Developers, 2 yr 41
Released games 77
Announced 83
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Cooking
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Cooking; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Economy, Management, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 8,074 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $11k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $260k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 83 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Cooking with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair54 devs · median $14k · 68 announced
  2. + DogsFair12 devs · median $8.1k · 12 announced
  3. + Turn-Based CombatFair15 devs · median $6.0k · 22 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair68 devs · median $1.8k · 79 announced
  5. + LogicFair27 devs · median $1.6k · 26 announced
  6. + Score AttackFair28 devs · median $1.4k · 30 announced
  7. + Hidden ObjectFair25 devs · median $1.0k · 20 announced
  8. + PuzzleFair77 devs · median $958 · 92 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligencePoor odds15 devs · median $73k · 10 announced
  10. + JRPGPoor odds13 devs · median $34k · 25 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds16 devs · median $30k · 32 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds12 devs · median $26k · 23 announced

All 95 pairs on the Cooking page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Arctic Eggs older $9.99 5,343 95% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,297) The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie,… (The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie, Cameron Ginex)
Wrap House Simulator🌯 $14.99 2,951 87% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,065) Broken Lyre Entertainment, Wendigo Games
Chef: A Restaurant Tycoon Game older $19.99 1,388 72% 42k $832k (exactly $832,384) Innervoid Interactive
Winkeltje: The Little Shop older $14.99 1,612 88% 48k $725k (exactly $724,916) Sassybot
TasteMaker older $11.99 1,249 83% 37k $449k (exactly $449,265) Jelle Booij
Chef Knight $5.99 2,433 94% 73k $437k (exactly $437,210) Clover Bite
Pixel Cafe older $12.99 833 91% 25k $325k (exactly $324,620) Baltoro Games
Recipe for Disaster older $14.99 591 69% 18k $266k (exactly $265,773) Dapper Penguin Studios
Inn Tycoon $11.99 727 76% 22k $262k (exactly $261,502) Evil Goose Games
I Know a Guy: Shady Life Simulator · EA $12.99 398 90% 12k $155k (exactly $155,101) Bunch'o'Nerds
Cafe Business Manager · EA $14.99 330 86% 9.9k $148k (exactly $148,401) Caos Interactive
Pizza Bandit · EA $24.99 185 82% 5.6k $139k (exactly $138,694) JOFSOFT
Bakery Cafe Simulator · EA $11.99 380 70% 11k $137k (exactly $136,686) Meerkatt Studio
One Iced Latte With Your Breast Milk, Please! $9.99 292 83% 8.8k $88k (exactly $87,512) azaly, nemuaki
Tropical Resort Simulator $13.99 168 83% 5.0k $71k (exactly $70,510) Beardroid Games
My Little Cafe Nightmare $8.99 210 90% 6.3k $57k (exactly $56,637) SethMadDev

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.