Do I ship it?

GamesBuildingBuilding + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Building game?

Building + Capitalism

Of 224 developers who shipped a Capitalist Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 341 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $14k, ×22 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.5k; 1 in 20 cleared $980k, ×1565 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 341 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 341 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Building + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 224
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $24k → $37k → $21k → $25k → $29k → $29k → $6.6k (still earning) → $3.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Building + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 224
Bottom 30% $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Median $14k (exactly $13,755)
Top 25% $92k (exactly $92,354)
Top 5% $983k (exactly $983,060)
Developers, 2 yr 224
Released games 418
Announced 341
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Building; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Economy, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 120,283 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.5k, median $14k, 1 in 4 over $92k, 1 in 20 over $980k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.5k. 6 in 10 of the 107 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 341 games are announced against 140 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds66 devs · median $28k · 70 announced
  2. + CatsFair52 devs · median $4.5k · 59 announced
  3. + TabletopFair56 devs · median $1.9k · 58 announced
  4. + Grid-Based MovementFair50 devs · median $719 · 57 announced
  5. + Interactive FictionFair17 devs · median $449 · 20 announced
  6. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds14 devs · median $303k · 40 announced
  7. + JRPGPoor odds10 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds28 devs · median $85k · 61 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds112 devs · median $71k · 251 announced
  10. + Real-TimePoor odds14 devs · median $62k · 20 announced
  11. + CrimePoor odds13 devs · median $55k · 52 announced
  12. + SailingPoor odds13 devs · median $52k · 40 announced

All 210 pairs on the Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Prison Architect older $29.99 59,802 89% 1.8M $54M (exactly $53,803,859) Introversion Software, Double Eleven
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
Tropico 6 older $39.99 19,837 88% 595k $24M (exactly $23,798,449) Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios
Parkitect older $29.99 6,809 94% 204k $6.1M (exactly $6,126,057) Texel Raptor
Airport CEO older $24.99 7,752 83% 233k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,674) Apog Labs
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Software Inc. · EA older $22.99 7,576 94% 227k $5.2M (exactly $5,225,167) Coredumping
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay
Tropico 4 older $14.99 8,211 91% 246k $3.7M (exactly $3,692,487) Haemimont Games
News Tower $24.99 4,316 94% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,235,705) Sparrow Night
Hotel Architect $29.99 1,934 94% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,740,020) Pathos Interactive
Recycling Center Simulator $19.99 2,594 84% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,555,622) Balas Games
Discounty $19.99 2,322 82% 70k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,503) Crinkle Cut Games
Get To Work $12.99 3,456 88% 104k $1.3M (exactly $1,346,803) Isto Inc.
Wrap House Simulator🌯 $14.99 2,951 87% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,065) Broken Lyre Entertainment, Wendigo Games
Mall Simulator · EA $13.99 3,139 82% 94k $1.3M (exactly $1,317,438) F13 Games
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.