Do I ship it?

GamesLife SimLife Sim + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Life Sim?

Life Sim + Capitalism

Of 219 developers who shipped a Capitalist Life Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 331 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×21 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $820k, ×1739 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 331 games are announced against 136 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 331 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Life Sim + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 219
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.4k → $11k → $6.2k → $25k → $17k → $9.4k → $7.6k (still earning) → $4.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Life Sim + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 219
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,704)
Median $10k (exactly $10,132)
Top 25% $59k (exactly $58,991)
Top 5% $826k (exactly $825,970)
Developers, 2 yr 219
Released games 407
Announced 331
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Life Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Life Sim; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Management, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $15.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $15.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 169,360 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $58k, 1 in 20 over $820k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 6 in 10 of the 114 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 331 games are announced against 136 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Life Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds38 devs · median $54k · 21 announced
  2. + MinigamesStrong odds20 devs · median $11k · 19 announced
  3. + MusicStrong odds28 devs · median $9.2k · 20 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair144 devs · median $19k · 153 announced
  5. + Football (Soccer)Fair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  6. + FaithFair11 devs · median $9.4k · 13 announced
  7. + Artificial IntelligenceFair92 devs · median $7.3k · 121 announced
  8. + GamblingFair28 devs · median $4.0k · 32 announced
  9. + DemonsFair16 devs · median $2.4k · 22 announced
  10. + Point & ClickFair162 devs · median $2.4k · 219 announced
  11. + LogicFair70 devs · median $1.5k · 74 announced
  12. + ZombiesFair29 devs · median $1.5k · 34 announced

All 173 pairs on the Life Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Potionomics older $24.99 6,973 90% 209k $5.2M (exactly $5,227,658) Voracious Games
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay
小白兔电商~Bunny e-Shop older $10.99 9,176 93% 275k $3.0M (exactly $3,025,327) 落叶岛项目组, 橘子班
Recycling Center Simulator $19.99 2,594 84% 78k $1.6M (exactly $1,555,622) Balas Games
Discounty $19.99 2,322 82% 70k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,503) Crinkle Cut Games
Wrap House Simulator🌯 $14.99 2,951 87% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,065) Broken Lyre Entertainment, Wendigo Games
Mall Simulator · EA $13.99 3,139 82% 94k $1.3M (exactly $1,317,438) F13 Games
Football Life Simulator · EA $19.99 1,567 68% 47k $940k (exactly $939,730) Ludu Arts
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.