Do I ship it?

GamesFishingFishing + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Fishing game?

Fishing + Capitalism

Only 15 developers shipped a Capitalist Fishing game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Cornerpond, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $23k, ×48 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $8.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×485 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 48.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 18 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Fishing + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $64k → $95k → $19k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Fishing + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $8.4k (exactly $8,392)
Median $23k (exactly $23,002)
Top 25% $147k (exactly $147,354)
Top 5% $230k (exactly $230,260)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 28
Announced 18
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Fishing
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Fishing; all of the top 25% also carry Economy, Management, Resource Management
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
all of the top 25% ship with 2D, Cute, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 6,518 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $8.4k, median $23k, 1 in 4 over $140k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $8.4k. 4 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Fishing with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FarmingFair31 devs · median $18k · 26 announced
  2. + AutomationFair40 devs · median $3.4k · 46 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair64 devs · median $1.8k · 87 announced
  4. + Score AttackFair11 devs · median $719 · 8 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair51 devs · median $716 · 64 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds39 devs · median $70k · 73 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds14 devs · median $47k · 29 announced
  8. + Online Co-OpPoor odds34 devs · median $36k · 85 announced
  9. + EconomyPoor odds49 devs · median $23k · 66 announced
  10. + AgriculturePoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds13 devs · median $15k · 30 announced
  12. + Farming SimPoor odds84 devs · median $15k · 170 announced

All 77 pairs on the Fishing page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Megaquarium older $24.99 3,444 95% 103k $2.6M (exactly $2,581,967) Twice Circled
Chillquarium older $5.99 7,780 92% 233k $1.4M (exactly $1,398,066) Ben Reber
Shoppe Keep 2 older $9.99 1,527 57% 46k $458k (exactly $457,642) Strange Fire
Cornerpond $2.99 2,567 97% 77k $230k (exactly $230,260) foolsroom
Tiny Terraces · EA $6.99 938 92% 28k $197k (exactly $196,699) VuVuu
Captain Whiskers: Incremental Seas $5.99 886 85% 27k $159k (exactly $159,214) Happy Universe Studios
Lakeside Bar $5.99 820 86% 25k $147k (exactly $147,354) BITCOVER
Sip Fisher $4.99 637 92% 19k $95k (exactly $95,359) Syphon Software
FISH FEAR ME $9.99 214 84% 6.4k $64k (exactly $64,136) HEATHER FLOWERS
Aquaculture Land: Fish Farming Simulation older $9.99 181 75% 5.4k $54k (exactly $54,246) Maulidan Games
Lured In $7.99 151 84% 4.5k $36k (exactly $36,195) Big Boy Games
Desktop Fishes $5.99 128 82% 3.8k $23k (exactly $23,002) Daniel Santalla
Sky Harvest · EA $7.99 79 84% 2.4k $19k (exactly $18,936) Armored Cat
Grove Fisher $4.99 98 67% 2.9k $15k (exactly $14,671) EVIL CORP GAMES

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.