Do I ship it?

GamesBase BuildingBase Building + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Base Building game?

Base Building + Capitalism

Of 99 developers who shipped a Capitalist Base Building game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 135 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.8k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $640k, ×1021 the market median. Revenue is down 45% on the market; 135 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 45% on the market, 135 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Base Building + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 99
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $198k → $52k → $44k → $29k → $6.0k → $3.0k (still earning) → $3.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Base Building + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 99
Bottom 30% $1.9k (exactly $1,915)
Median $7.8k (exactly $7,759)
Top 25% $51k (exactly $50,718)
Top 5% $641k (exactly $641,446)
Developers, 2 yr 99
Released games 175
Announced 135
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 45% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Base Building
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Base Building; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Economy, Management, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 24,946 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.0k, median $7.8k, 1 in 4 over $50k, 1 in 20 over $640k.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.0k. 6 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 135 games are announced against 62 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Base Building with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + ProgrammingFair13 devs · median $53k · 21 announced
  2. + DwarvesFair12 devs · median $13k · 19 announced
  3. + Bullet HellFair61 devs · median $540 · 67 announced
  4. + DiplomacyPoor odds19 devs · median $520k · 47 announced
  5. + SailingPoor odds9 devs · median $356k · 38 announced
  6. + Dating SimPoor odds19 devs · median $128k · 21 announced
  7. + TrainsPoor odds19 devs · median $113k · 47 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds20 devs · median $73k · 35 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds130 devs · median $72k · 262 announced
  10. + UndergroundPoor odds12 devs · median $65k · 71 announced
  11. + MarsPoor odds15 devs · median $58k · 28 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds81 devs · median $58k · 175 announced

All 175 pairs on the Base Building page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
Prison Architect older $29.99 59,802 89% 1.8M $54M (exactly $53,803,859) Introversion Software, Double Eleven
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Airport CEO older $24.99 7,752 83% 233k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,674) Apog Labs
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Waterpark Simulator $12.99 13,280 96% 398k $5.2M (exactly $5,175,216) CayPlay
Rise of Industry older $29.99 3,122 74% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,808,863) Dapper Penguin Studios
Startup Company older $12.99 5,853 81% 176k $2.3M (exactly $2,280,914) Hovgaard Games
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Academia : School Simulator older $19.99 2,846 85% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,706,746) Squeaky Wheel Studio Inc
Wrap House Simulator🌯 $14.99 2,951 87% 89k $1.3M (exactly $1,327,065) Broken Lyre Entertainment, Wendigo Games
Sintopia $34.99 951 80% 29k $998k (exactly $998,265) Piraknights Games
The Walking Trade $11.99 2,733 86% 82k $983k (exactly $983,060) Microwave Games
Ore Factory Squad ⛏️ $12.99 1,646 87% 49k $641k (exactly $641,446) threeW
Ale Abbey - Monastery Brewery Tycoon $14.99 1,279 88% 38k $575k (exactly $575,166) Hammer & Ravens
Movies Tycoon $29.99 545 70% 16k $490k (exactly $490,336) PixelCraze s.r.o.
Farm Manager World $19.99 605 68% 18k $363k (exactly $362,818) Cleversan Games
Hotel Magnate $19.99 419 58% 13k $251k (exactly $251,274) Arcade Oven
Factory Outlet Simulator $10.99 537 74% 16k $177k (exactly $177,049) PISHO

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.