Do I ship it?

GamesFPSFPS + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist FPS?

FPS + Capitalism

Of 35 developers who shipped a Capitalist FPS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 71 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×8.5 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.6M, ×1072 the market median. Revenue is up 90% on the market; 71 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 90% on the market, 71 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
FPS + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.3k → $11k → $15k → $15k → $80k (still earning) → $5.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for FPS + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $1.8k (exactly $1,794)
Median $13k (exactly $12,688)
Top 25% $80k (exactly $79,853)
Top 5% $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 85
Announced 71
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

FPS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
FPS; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Immersive Sim, Simulation, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 10,128 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $79k, 1 in 20 over $1.6M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 6 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 71 games are announced against 19 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

FPS with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + LGBTQ+Fair28 devs · median $32k · 22 announced
  2. + Dating SimFair47 devs · median $19k · 36 announced
  3. + IdlerFair22 devs · median $4.2k · 23 announced
  4. + GamblingFair24 devs · median $4.1k · 22 announced
  5. + FaithFair14 devs · median $1.9k · 12 announced
  6. + Precision PlatformerFair37 devs · median $1.6k · 38 announced
  7. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $1.4k · 12 announced
  8. + Walking SimulatorFair172 devs · median $1.2k · 190 announced
  9. + RunnerLong shot39 devs · median $958 · 43 announced
  10. + Action RTSLong shot16 devs · median $899 · 21 announced
  11. + Bullet HellLong shot130 devs · median $629 · 145 announced
  12. + DogsLong shot6 devs · median $594 · 7 announced

All 216 pairs on the FPS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Fallout 76 older $39.99 78,346 74% 2.4M $94M (exactly $93,991,696) Bethesda Game Studios
Cruelty Squad older $19.99 23,209 96% 696k $14M (exactly $13,918,437) Consumer Softproducts
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
Forefront $27.99 1,913 84% 57k $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) Triangle Factory
The Walking Trade $11.99 2,733 86% 82k $983k (exactly $983,060) Microwave Games
Football Life Simulator · EA $19.99 1,567 68% 47k $940k (exactly $939,730) Ludu Arts
NUTS older $24.99 884 88% 27k $663k (exactly $662,735) Joon, Pol, Muutsch, Char & Torfi
Shoppe Keep 2 older $9.99 1,527 57% 46k $458k (exactly $457,642) Strange Fire
Bot Wars · EA older $14.99 700 86% 21k $315k (exactly $314,790) Frompy Games
Estate Agent Simulator · EA older $15.99 573 67% 17k $275k (exactly $274,868) Kiki Games
Cinema Simulator 2025 · EA $11.99 573 76% 17k $206k (exactly $206,108) HOGO Games
Tailor Simulator · EA $9.99 406 90% 12k $122k (exactly $121,678) Zoady
Gamer Stop Simulator · EA $12.99 267 70% 8.0k $104k (exactly $104,050) Red Axe Games
goblinAmerica · EA $14.99 179 96% 5.4k $80k (exactly $80,496) Gil Lawson
Unsafe Express $11.99 222 59% 6.7k $80k (exactly $79,853) OnSkull Games
Business Simulator 2026 · EA $11.99 178 74% 5.3k $64k (exactly $64,027) HOGO Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.