Do I ship it?

GamesShop KeeperShop Keeper + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Shop Keeper?

Shop Keeper + Capitalism

Of 135 developers who shipped a Capitalist Shop Keeper in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 204 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $8.4k, ×18 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $990; 1 in 20 cleared $550k, ×1172 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 204 games are announced against 112 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 17.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 204 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shop Keeper + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 135
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $142k → $22k → $10k → $2.7k (still earning) → $4.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shop Keeper + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 135
Bottom 30% $987 (exactly $987)
Median $8.4k (exactly $8,361)
Top 25% $53k (exactly $53,130)
Top 5% $557k (exactly $556,729)
Developers, 2 yr 135
Released games 167
Announced 204
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 330% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 4%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shop Keeper
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Shop Keeper; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Economy
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Relaxing
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 63,967 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $990, median $8.4k, 1 in 4 over $53k, 1 in 20 over $550k.

3 in 10 developers made under $990. 6 in 10 of the 27 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 204 games are announced against 112 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shop Keeper with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds101 devs · median $13k · 122 announced
  2. + HorrorFair32 devs · median $5.1k · 55 announced
  3. + Psychological HorrorFair26 devs · median $5.1k · 44 announced
  4. + ModernFair27 devs · median $3.2k · 28 announced
  5. + StrategyFair159 devs · median $1.8k · 264 announced
  6. + LogicFair20 devs · median $1.5k · 27 announced
  7. + IncrementalFair56 devs · median $1.3k · 89 announced
  8. + Strategy RPGFair21 devs · median $987 · 25 announced
  9. + NaturePoor odds32 devs · median $31k · 59 announced
  10. + BuildingPoor odds140 devs · median $16k · 209 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds44 devs · median $16k · 96 announced
  12. + Co-opPoor odds40 devs · median $13k · 96 announced

All 48 pairs on the Shop Keeper page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Recettear: An Item Shop's Tale older $19.99 6,684 95% 201k $4.0M (exactly $4,008,395) EasyGameStation
Storage Hunter Simulator $24.99 3,866 78% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) Raccoons Studio
Moonlighter 2: The Endless Vault $29.99 3,146 80% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,830,456) Digital Sun
King of Retail older $25.99 2,982 88% 89k $2.3M (exactly $2,325,065) Freaking Games
Dealer's Life 2 older $14.99 3,994 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,796,102) Abyte Entertainment
Saleblazers · EA older $29.99 1,974 78% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,776,008) AIRSTRAFE INTERACTIVE
Discounty $19.99 2,322 82% 70k $1.4M (exactly $1,392,503) Crinkle Cut Games
Another Brick in The Mall older $16.99 2,340 83% 70k $1.2M (exactly $1,192,698) The Quadsphere
No Umbrellas Allowed older $19.99 1,394 80% 42k $836k (exactly $835,982) Hoochoo Game Studios
Megastore Simulator · EA $13.99 1,968 93% 59k $826k (exactly $825,970) Yolo Games Studio
Bookshop Simulator $15.99 1,496 92% 45k $718k (exactly $717,631) Blep Games
Better Mart Simulator $14.99 1,238 89% 37k $557k (exactly $556,729) Exanticx Studio
Clothing Store Simulator $12.99 1,119 89% 34k $436k (exactly $436,074) Kiki Games
Potion Tycoon $19.99 629 71% 19k $377k (exactly $377,211) Snowhound Games
Tobacco Shop Simulator $11.99 826 89% 25k $297k (exactly $297,112) Business Tycoon

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.