Do I ship it?

GamesSportsSports + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Sports game?

Sports + Capitalism

Only 17 developers shipped a Capitalist Sports game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Le Mans Ultimate, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.0k, ×8.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.8k; 1 in 20 cleared $18M, ×28785 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 14 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 8.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 14 announced, ×1.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sports + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 17
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $37k → $60k (still earning) → $5.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sports + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 17
Bottom 30% $1.7k (exactly $1,704)
Median $5.0k (exactly $5,034)
Top 25% $95k (exactly $94,753)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $18,077,080)
Developers, 2 yr 17
Released games 27
Announced 14
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 225% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sports
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sports; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Action, Driving
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 22,599 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.8k, median $5.0k, 1 in 4 over $94k, 1 in 20 over $18M.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.8k. 14 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sports with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dynamic NarrationStrong odds17 devs · median $4.2k · 9 announced
  2. + CraftingFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Strategy RPGFair23 devs · median $4.7k · 26 announced
  4. + SandboxFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  5. + Split ScreenFair58 devs · median $4.0k · 52 announced
  6. + Dating SimFair29 devs · median $3.6k · 21 announced
  7. + Visual NovelFair38 devs · median $3.4k · 31 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Fair14 devs · median $3.4k · 13 announced
  9. + FMVFair17 devs · median $2.7k · 5 announced
  10. + BikesFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 18 announced
  11. + Immersive SimFair182 devs · median $2.4k · 185 announced
  12. + Choices MatterFair120 devs · median $2.4k · 150 announced

All 199 pairs on the Sports page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Le Mans Ultimate $39.99 15,068 79% 452k $18M (exactly $18,077,080) Studio 397
MindsEye $34.99 2,855 48% 86k $3.0M (exactly $2,996,894) Build A Rocket Boy
Esports Manager 2026 $19.99 3,860 73% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,314,842) Neurona Games
Russian Life Simulator older $0.99 7,156 88% 215k $213k (exactly $212,533) GosDev Production
Copa City: Matchday Manager $24.99 247 72% 7.4k $185k (exactly $185,176) Triple Espresso S.A.
Under Par Golf Architect $19.99 158 81% 4.7k $95k (exactly $94,753) Broken Arms Games
Gym Manager older $9.99 306 80% 9.2k $92k (exactly $91,708) Han GAMES
Sports Card Shop Simulator · EA $12.99 155 92% 4.7k $60k (exactly $60,404) OverPowered Team
Skatehouse $9.99 123 94% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,863) Tyler Ray Games
Vertiginous Golf older $9.99 113 62% 3.4k $34k (exactly $33,866) Kinelco & Lone Elk Creative
Sporting Goods Shop $11.99 94 97% 2.8k $34k (exactly $33,812) Business Tycoon
Shoe it All! $7.99 21 100% 630 $5.0k (exactly $5,034) Amberbite
Padel Tycoon $4.99 18 94% 540 $2.7k (exactly $2,695) Santiago Piedras Gonzalez

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.