Do I ship it?

GamesCity BuilderCity Builder + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist City Builder?

City Builder + Capitalism

Of 72 developers who shipped a Capitalist City Builder in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 113 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.7k, ×12 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $900; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×781 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 113 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 113 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
City Builder + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $37k → $4.1k → $7.7k → $10k → $89k → $3.0k (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for City Builder + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $898 (exactly $898)
Median $7.7k (exactly $7,727)
Top 25% $50k (exactly $49,750)
Top 5% $490k (exactly $490,336)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 167
Announced 113
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

City Builder
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
City Builder; 9 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Economy, Management, Simulation
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 8,854 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $900, median $7.7k, 1 in 4 over $49k, 1 in 20 over $490k.

3 in 10 developers made under $900. 7 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 113 games are announced against 39 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

City Builder with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelStrong odds10 devs · median $19k · 8 announced
  2. + LogicFair58 devs · median $3.3k · 74 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair75 devs · median $1.3k · 96 announced
  4. + Hidden ObjectFair16 devs · median $1.3k · 20 announced
  5. + ArcadeFair28 devs · median $898 · 27 announced
  6. + RacingLong shot12 devs · median $299 · 9 announced
  7. + RomePoor odds9 devs · median $423k · 10 announced
  8. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds13 devs · median $215k · 25 announced
  9. + HorrorPoor odds10 devs · median $157k · 21 announced
  10. + Alternate HistoryPoor odds17 devs · median $146k · 50 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds32 devs · median $118k · 55 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds26 devs · median $108k · 47 announced

All 136 pairs on the City Builder page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Victoria 3 older $49.99 41,251 71% 1.2M $62M (exactly $61,864,125) Paradox Development Studio
Prison Architect older $29.99 59,802 89% 1.8M $54M (exactly $53,803,859) Introversion Software, Double Eleven
Tropico 6 older $39.99 19,837 88% 595k $24M (exactly $23,798,449) Limbic Entertainment, Realmforge Studios
Parkitect older $29.99 6,809 94% 204k $6.1M (exactly $6,126,057) Texel Raptor
Airport CEO older $24.99 7,752 83% 233k $5.8M (exactly $5,811,674) Apog Labs
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Tropico 4 older $14.99 8,211 91% 246k $3.7M (exactly $3,692,487) Haemimont Games
Rise of Industry older $29.99 3,122 74% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,808,863) Dapper Penguin Studios
Hotel Architect $29.99 1,934 94% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,740,020) Pathos Interactive
Academia : School Simulator older $19.99 2,846 85% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,706,746) Squeaky Wheel Studio Inc
Mall Simulator · EA $13.99 3,139 82% 94k $1.3M (exactly $1,317,438) F13 Games
Sintopia $34.99 951 80% 29k $998k (exactly $998,265) Piraknights Games
Movies Tycoon $29.99 545 70% 16k $490k (exactly $490,336) PixelCraze s.r.o.
Industry Giant 4.0 $24.99 506 33% 15k $379k (exactly $379,348) Don VS Dodo
Farm Manager World $19.99 605 68% 18k $363k (exactly $362,818) Cleversan Games
Hotel Magnate $19.99 419 58% 13k $251k (exactly $251,274) Arcade Oven
Aquapark Tycoon · EA $22.99 278 89% 8.3k $192k (exactly $191,737) Boxelware
Super Movie Tycoon $16.99 323 73% 9.7k $165k (exactly $164,633) Yuedong Game
Rise of Industry 2 $34.99 154 55% 4.6k $162k (exactly $161,654) SomaSim

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.