Do I ship it?

GamesInvestigationInvestigation + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Investigation game?

Investigation + Capitalism

Only 13 developers shipped a Capitalist Investigation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ], made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×4.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.5k, ×9.5 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $600; 1 in 20 cleared $21k, ×45 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 37 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 9.5 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 37 announced, ×4.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Investigation + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.6k → $600 → $5.8k → $330 (still earning) → $4.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Investigation + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $4.5k (exactly $4,497)
Top 25% $14k (exactly $14,388)
Top 5% $21k (exactly $21,279)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 36
Announced 37
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Investigation
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Investigation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Immersive Sim, Economy
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $11.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Cute, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $11.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 400 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $4.5k, 1 in 4 over $14k, 1 in 20 over $21k.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Investigation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Escape RoomFair61 devs · median $2.1k · 50 announced
  2. + IdlerFair15 devs · median $898 · 16 announced
  3. + TriviaLong shot8 devs · median $215 · 9 announced
  4. + LGBTQ+Poor odds42 devs · median $39k · 70 announced
  5. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $12k · 27 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds64 devs · median $9.0k · 121 announced
  7. + RomancePoor odds62 devs · median $9.0k · 101 announced
  8. + GothicPoor odds26 devs · median $8.1k · 54 announced
  9. + LovecraftianPoor odds56 devs · median $7.2k · 104 announced
  10. + Dating SimPoor odds37 devs · median $6.6k · 50 announced
  11. + Card GamePoor odds14 devs · median $6.6k · 34 announced
  12. + SciencePoor odds21 devs · median $5.9k · 36 announced

All 134 pairs on the Investigation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Arctic Eggs older $9.99 5,343 95% 160k $1.6M (exactly $1,601,297) The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie,… (The Water Museum, cockydoody, abmarnie, Cameron Ginex)
To Hell With The Ugly older $19.99 133 87% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) La Poule Noire, ARTE France
The Zodiac Trial older $14.99 142 95% 4.3k $64k (exactly $63,857) Themisian
Regular Factory: Escape Room older $9.99 210 91% 6.3k $63k (exactly $62,937) mc2games
Psychroma older $9.99 193 88% 5.8k $58k (exactly $57,842) Rocket Adrift
Terminal 81 older $4.99 277 96% 8.3k $41k (exactly $41,467) David Pateti
how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ] $9.99 71 97% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Radtel Collective
Trading Card Inspector $6.99 89 96% 2.7k $19k (exactly $18,663) Daydream Gallery
The Divine Deception older $14.99 38 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $17,089) Themisian
MALL MANAGER SIMULATOR $4.99 98 40% 2.9k $15k (exactly $14,671) Krisztian Blaha, KINETIC MOBILE GAMES
Farmer’s Market Simulator · EA $11.99 40 87% 1.2k $14k (exactly $14,388) Heze Games
Lern Island Letters $2.99 65 93% 2.0k $5.8k (exactly $5,830) River and Oak
An Engineer and the Great Machine $15.99 10 100% 300 $4.8k (exactly $4,797) Gentlegear Games
Roman Sands RE:Build $14.99 10 100% 300 $4.5k (exactly $4,497) Arbitrary Metric
GlobalQuarantine $4.99 6 33% 180 $898 (exactly $898) Contagio Games
Agents! Please? $4.04 7 100% 210 $848 (exactly $848) KIB Games
A Totally Legal Archaeology Adventure $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Exponential production

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.