Do I ship it?

GamesFarming SimFarming Sim + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Farming Sim?

Farming Sim + Capitalism

Of 44 developers who shipped a Capitalist Farming Sim in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 75 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $19k, ×40 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×764 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 75 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 39.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 25% on the market, 75 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Farming Sim + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 44
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $5.7k → $47k → $22k → $91k → $6.6k (still earning) → $5.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Farming Sim + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 44
Bottom 30% $5.9k (exactly $5,920)
Median $19k (exactly $18,936)
Top 25% $91k (exactly $90,800)
Top 5% $363k (exactly $362,818)
Developers, 2 yr 44
Released games 90
Announced 75
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Farming Sim
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Farming Sim; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Building, Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 13,116 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.0k, median $19k, 1 in 4 over $90k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.0k. 6 in 10 of the 23 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 75 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Farming Sim with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorFair19 devs · median $12k · 23 announced
  2. + DogsFair18 devs · median $4.1k · 20 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair140 devs · median $1.6k · 168 announced
  4. + IdlerFair208 devs · median $1.3k · 211 announced
  5. + TacticalFair12 devs · median $897 · 10 announced
  6. + Artificial IntelligenceFair17 devs · median $718 · 16 announced
  7. + God GameLong shot22 devs · median $359 · 24 announced
  8. + Visual NovelLong shot11 devs · median $239 · 13 announced
  9. + LGBTQ+Poor odds10 devs · median $146k · 16 announced
  10. + Psychological HorrorPoor odds11 devs · median $111k · 25 announced
  11. + JRPGPoor odds14 devs · median $89k · 20 announced
  12. + HorsesPoor odds14 devs · median $70k · 20 announced

All 102 pairs on the Farming Sim page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Definitely Not Fried Chicken older $24.99 2,161 72% 65k $1.6M (exactly $1,620,102) Dope Games
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
Winkeltje: The Little Shop older $14.99 1,612 88% 48k $725k (exactly $724,916) Sassybot
Industry Giant 4.0 $24.99 506 33% 15k $379k (exactly $379,348) Don VS Dodo
Farm Manager World $19.99 605 68% 18k $363k (exactly $362,818) Cleversan Games
Happy Sheepies older $19.99 561 85% 17k $336k (exactly $336,432) Berker Games
How to Train Your Cock $3.99 1,875 95% 56k $224k (exactly $224,438) Little Horror Studios
Tiny Terraces · EA $6.99 938 92% 28k $197k (exactly $196,699) VuVuu
Weed Supermarket Simulator $14.99 420 87% 13k $189k (exactly $188,874) DreamWay Games
Lakeside Bar $5.99 820 86% 25k $147k (exactly $147,354) BITCOVER
Cozy Keep: Farm, Craft, Manage · EA $14.99 315 93% 9.5k $142k (exactly $141,656) Unbossed Games
Plant Nursery Simulator $12.99 330 93% 9.9k $129k (exactly $128,601) Robot Assembly
Ranch Farm and Store Simulator $12.99 252 84% 7.6k $98k (exactly $98,204) Bewolba Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.