Do I ship it?

GamesTradingTrading + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Trading game?

Trading + Capitalism

Of 166 developers who shipped a Capitalist Trading game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 228 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $5.9k, ×12 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×918 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 228 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 12.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 228 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Trading + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 166
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $8.9k → $22k → $4.1k → $7.0k → $29k → $8.4k → $4.8k (still earning) → $1.8k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Trading + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 166
Bottom 30% $1.3k (exactly $1,348)
Median $5.9k (exactly $5,865)
Top 25% $52k (exactly $52,052)
Top 5% $436k (exactly $436,074)
Developers, 2 yr 166
Released games 296
Announced 228
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 100% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Trading
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Trading; nearly all of the top 25% also carry Economy, Management, Simulation
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 141,134 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.4k, median $5.9k, 1 in 4 over $52k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.4k. 6 in 10 of the 75 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 228 games are announced against 113 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Trading with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + MiningFair32 devs · median $12k · 33 announced
  2. + Score AttackFair13 devs · median $600 · 13 announced
  3. + MMORPGPoor odds6 devs · median $206k · 42 announced
  4. + Character CustomizationPoor odds26 devs · median $60k · 137 announced
  5. + Online Co-OpPoor odds23 devs · median $47k · 84 announced
  6. + Co-opPoor odds24 devs · median $47k · 82 announced
  7. + FlightPoor odds6 devs · median $36k · 21 announced
  8. + SportsPoor odds11 devs · median $34k · 14 announced
  9. + CollectathonPoor odds28 devs · median $30k · 65 announced
  10. + PhysicsPoor odds23 devs · median $27k · 71 announced
  11. + DrivingPoor odds23 devs · median $24k · 48 announced
  12. + LootPoor odds23 devs · median $23k · 60 announced

All 109 pairs on the Trading page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Supermarket Simulator $19.99 79,236 92% 2.4M $48M (exactly $47,517,829) Nokta Games
TCG Card Shop Simulator $19.99 47,357 96% 1.4M $28M (exactly $28,399,993) OPNeon Games
Potion Craft: Alchemist Simulator older $19.99 37,870 92% 1.1M $23M (exactly $22,710,639) niceplay games
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Mad Games Tycoon 2 older $24.99 7,355 93% 221k $5.5M (exactly $5,514,044) Eggcode
Storage Hunter Simulator $24.99 3,866 78% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,898,340) Raccoons Studio
Rise of Industry older $29.99 3,122 74% 94k $2.8M (exactly $2,808,863) Dapper Penguin Studios
King of Retail older $25.99 2,982 88% 89k $2.3M (exactly $2,325,065) Freaking Games
Dealer's Life 2 older $14.99 3,994 85% 120k $1.8M (exactly $1,796,102) Abyte Entertainment
Mad Games Tycoon older $14.99 3,700 91% 111k $1.7M (exactly $1,663,890) Eggcode
Mall Simulator · EA $13.99 3,139 82% 94k $1.3M (exactly $1,317,438) F13 Games
Megastore Simulator · EA $13.99 1,968 93% 59k $826k (exactly $825,970) Yolo Games Studio
Bookshop Simulator $15.99 1,496 92% 45k $718k (exactly $717,631) Blep Games
Geo-Political Simulator 5 $59.99 391 34% 12k $704k (exactly $703,683) Eversim
Supercar Collection Simulator $12.99 1,528 85% 46k $595k (exactly $595,462) Kiki Games
The Executive - Movie Industry Tycoon $14.99 1,034 80% 31k $465k (exactly $464,990) Aniki Games
Clothing Store Simulator $12.99 1,119 89% 34k $436k (exactly $436,074) Kiki Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.