Do I ship it?

GamesAgricultureAgriculture + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Agriculture game?

Agriculture + Capitalism

Of 23 developers who shipped a Capitalist Agriculture game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 38 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $17k, ×26 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $6.0k; 1 in 20 cleared $870k, ×1389 the market median. Revenue is down 80% on the market; 38 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 26.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 80% on the market, 38 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Agriculture + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 23
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $89k → $94k → $6.6k (still earning) → $17k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Agriculture + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 23
Bottom 30% $5.9k (exactly $5,920)
Median $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 25% $89k (exactly $89,311)
Top 5% $872k (exactly $872,427)
Developers, 2 yr 23
Released games 58
Announced 38
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 80% on the market, supply 65% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Agriculture
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Agriculture; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Management, Simulation, Building
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, 3D, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 11,832 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $6.0k, median $17k, 1 in 4 over $89k, 1 in 20 over $870k.

3 in 10 developers made under $6.0k. 5 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 38 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Agriculture with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Time ManagementFair57 devs · median $2.3k · 73 announced
  2. + IdlerFair72 devs · median $1.5k · 67 announced
  3. + IncrementalFair51 devs · median $683 · 60 announced
  4. + CatsFair18 devs · median $449 · 17 announced
  5. + God GameLong shot9 devs · median $180 · 7 announced
  6. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds14 devs · median $58k · 13 announced
  7. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $28k · 39 announced
  8. + Dating SimPoor odds15 devs · median $24k · 38 announced
  9. + RPGPoor odds72 devs · median $19k · 180 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds58 devs · median $19k · 133 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds17 devs · median $19k · 39 announced
  12. + FishingPoor odds48 devs · median $18k · 80 announced

All 83 pairs on the Agriculture page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Eco · EA older $29.99 11,375 80% 341k $10M (exactly $10,234,088) Strange Loop Games
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Hundred Days - Winemaking Simulator older $24.99 1,033 77% 31k $774k (exactly $774,440) Broken Arms Games
Farm Manager World $19.99 605 68% 18k $363k (exactly $362,818) Cleversan Games
Terracards · EA older $8.99 733 84% 22k $198k (exactly $197,690) Pixel Purrfect
Restaurant Empire II older $19.99 322 80% 9.7k $193k (exactly $193,103) Enlight Software Limited
Rise of Industry 2 $34.99 154 55% 4.6k $162k (exactly $161,654) SomaSim
Ranch Farm and Store Simulator $12.99 252 84% 7.6k $98k (exactly $98,204) Bewolba Studios
Alchemy Garden older $6.99 466 66% 14k $98k (exactly $97,720) MadSushi Games
ACRES $14.99 210 80% 6.3k $94k (exactly $94,437) Jimi Games
Hydroponics Farm & Store Simulator $9.99 298 80% 8.9k $89k (exactly $89,311) Bewolba Studios
Sloppy Fields · EA $9.79 201 95% 6.0k $59k (exactly $59,034) PixelPanzone
Farm Factory Simulator · EA $12.99 98 93% 2.9k $38k (exactly $38,191) Bewolba Studios
My Drug Cartel · EA $24.99 48 50% 1.4k $36k (exactly $35,986) Gigicom

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.