Do I ship it?

GamesIncrementalIncremental + Capitalism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Capitalist Incremental game?

Incremental + Capitalism

Of 204 developers who shipped a Capitalist Incremental game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 297 more are announced.

Verdict: fair, for a 4 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×4.4 the market's $480 for a 4 / 10 build, with 3 in 10 under $360. Revenue is up 95% on the market; 297 games are announced against 159 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 4.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 95% on the market, 297 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Incremental + Capitalism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 204
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.0k → $3.6k → $1.7k → $4.7k → $1.9k → $6.0k → $2.7k (still earning) → $1.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Incremental + Capitalism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 204
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,611)
Top 5% $364k (exactly $363,625)
Developers, 2 yr 204
Released games 372
Announced 297
Effort 4 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 95% on the market, supply 210% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Incremental
effort 1 / 10 · high · formulas and upgrade tables
Capitalism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
4 / 10 · mid 2D, writing-heavy, or simple 3D
Systems
Incremental; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Idler, Simulation, Management
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Relaxing, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 93% positive over 62,920 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 73 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 297 games are announced against 159 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Incremental with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds15 devs · median $11k · 12 announced
  2. + OtomeStrong odds12 devs · median $7.0k · 11 announced
  3. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $6.1k · 15 announced
  4. + FarmingFair21 devs · median $5.9k · 23 announced
  5. + Dynamic NarrationFair19 devs · median $4.0k · 14 announced
  6. + MiningFair141 devs · median $3.9k · 207 announced
  7. + Souls-likeFair9 devs · median $3.9k · 10 announced
  8. + Arena ShooterFair15 devs · median $3.5k · 20 announced
  9. + Dating SimFair140 devs · median $3.1k · 136 announced
  10. + UndergroundFair27 devs · median $3.0k · 35 announced
  11. + LootFair145 devs · median $2.9k · 236 announced
  12. + SupernaturalFair33 devs · median $2.4k · 35 announced

All 188 pairs on the Incremental page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Scritchy Scratchy $6.99 15,245 94% 457k $3.2M (exactly $3,196,876) Lunch Money Games
Startup Company older $12.99 5,853 81% 176k $2.3M (exactly $2,280,914) Hovgaard Games
Bills Must Be Paid $6.99 9,928 96% 298k $2.1M (exactly $2,081,902) Rike Games
Chillquarium older $5.99 7,780 92% 233k $1.4M (exactly $1,398,066) Ben Reber
Tiny Pasture $5.99 7,055 92% 212k $1.3M (exactly $1,267,784) CaveLiquid
Keep on Mining! $4.99 8,300 93% 249k $1.2M (exactly $1,242,510) EagleEye Games
Digseum $2.99 8,033 97% 241k $721k (exactly $720,560) Rat Monthly
Gamblers Table $6.99 2,955 74% 89k $620k (exactly $619,664) greenpixels, Bossforge
Space Warlord Organ Trading Simulator older $19.99 827 92% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Strange Scaffold
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
Click the Button $3.99 3,849 93% 115k $461k (exactly $460,725) LoopCap
Chef Knight $5.99 2,433 94% 73k $437k (exactly $437,210) Clover Bite
Keep on Mining! - Worlds $6.99 1,899 80% 57k $398k (exactly $398,220) EagleEye Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.