Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Tactical RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG

Of 766 developers who shipped a Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,544 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×820 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 1,544 games are announced against 429 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 1,544 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 766
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $2.2k → $4.3k → $2.3k → $3.0k → $3.4k → $1.2k (still earning) → $1.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 766
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,486)
Top 5% $515k (exactly $515,044)
Developers, 2 yr 766
Released games 2,369
Announced 1,544
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 45,172 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 442 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,544 games are announced against 429 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Tactical RPG

109 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Tactical RPG + Adventure Poor odds $2.4k 254 devs
  2. Strategy + Tactical RPG Poor odds $2.2k 537 devs
  3. Tactical RPG + Inventory Management Poor odds $2.2k 31 devs
  4. Real Time Tactics + Tactical RPG Poor odds $2.1k 80 devs
  5. Action RTS + Tactical RPG Poor odds $2.1k 14 devs
  6. Tactical RPG + Wargame Poor odds $1.8k 62 devs
  7. RTS + Tactical RPG Poor odds $1.8k 53 devs
  8. Tactical RPG + Local Multiplayer Poor odds $1.8k 8 devs
  9. Tactical RPG + Board Game Poor odds $1.8k 62 devs
  10. Grand Strategy + Tactical RPG Poor odds $1.5k 36 devs
  11. Tactical RPG + Interactive Fiction Poor odds $1.5k 24 devs
  12. Tactical RPG + Choose Your Own Adventure Poor odds $1.5k 37 devs
  13. Online Co-Op + Tactical RPG Poor odds $1.5k 31 devs
  14. Shooter + Tactical RPG Poor odds $1.5k 26 devs
  15. Tactical RPG + Exploration Poor odds $1.5k 152 devs
  16. Tactical RPG + Idler Poor odds $1.4k 24 devs
  17. Immersive Sim + Tactical RPG Poor odds $1.3k 23 devs
  18. Sports + Tactical RPG Poor odds $1.2k 15 devs
  19. Survival + Tactical RPG Poor odds $1.2k 62 devs
  20. Crafting + Tactical RPG Poor odds $1.2k 46 devs
  21. Tactical RPG + Logic Poor odds $1.2k 28 devs
  22. Tactical RPG + Time Management Poor odds $1.2k 25 devs
  23. Action + Tactical RPG Poor odds $1.0k 143 devs
  24. Economy + Tactical RPG Poor odds $1.0k 31 devs
  25. Combat + Tactical RPG Poor odds $899 164 devs
  26. PvE + Tactical RPG Poor odds $899 137 devs
  27. Action RPG + Tactical RPG Poor odds $899 113 devs
  28. PvP + Tactical RPG Poor odds $899 63 devs
  29. Tactical RPG + Tower Defense Poor odds $899 47 devs
  30. 2D Fighter + Tactical RPG Poor odds $899 13 devs
  31. Tactical RPG + Collectathon Poor odds $899 12 devs
  32. Tactical RPG + Action Roguelike Poor odds $839 34 devs
  33. Tactical RPG + Arcade Poor odds $779 19 devs
  34. Action-Adventure + Tactical RPG Poor odds $719 91 devs
  35. Tactical RPG + Tabletop Poor odds $599 39 devs
  36. Tactical RPG + Traditional Roguelike Poor odds $599 24 devs
  37. Trading Card Game + Tactical RPG Poor odds $598 13 devs
  38. God Game + Tactical RPG Poor odds $539 9 devs
  39. FPS + Tactical RPG Poor odds $150 13 devs
  40. Tactical RPG + Tanks Dead $264k 6 devs
  41. Level Editor + Tactical RPG Dead $28k 5 devs
  42. Real-Time with Pause + Tactical RPG Dead $16k 7 devs
  43. 4X + Tactical RPG Dead $9.9k 9 devs
  44. Tactical RPG + Bullet Hell Dead $7.8k 12 devs
  45. Spectacle fighter + Tactical RPG Dead $1.5k 6 devs
  46. Third-Person Shooter + Tactical RPG Dead $1.0k 10 devs
  47. MMORPG + Tactical RPG Dead $899 6 devs
  48. Tactical RPG + Trading Dead $899 6 devs
  49. Souls-like + Tactical RPG Dead $809 11 devs
  50. 3D Fighter + Tactical RPG Dead $599 7 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition 2017 · $244M RimWorld 2018 · $219M Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Divinity: Original Sin 2 - Definitive Edition older $44.99 180,782 95% 5.4M $244M (exactly $244,001,465) Larian Studios
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Warhammer 40,000: Rogue Trader older $49.99 33,701 87% 1.0M $51M (exactly $50,541,390) Owlcat Games
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Marvel's Midnight Suns older $59.99 17,060 82% 512k $31M (exactly $30,702,882) Firaxis Games
Age of Wonders 4 older $49.99 16,899 82% 507k $25M (exactly $25,343,430) Triumph Studios
MENACE · EA $39.99 12,281 90% 368k $15M (exactly $14,733,516) Overhype Studios
FINAL FANTASY TACTICS - The Ivalice Chronicles $49.99 5,673 89% 170k $8.5M (exactly $8,507,798) Square Enix
Romancing SaGa 2: Revenge of the Seven $49.99 3,921 93% 118k $5.9M (exactly $5,880,324) Square Enix, xeen Inc.
Heroes' Vow: Three Kingdoms · EA $19.99 6,652 88% 200k $4.0M (exactly $3,989,204) Free Wing
Solasta II · EA $39.99 2,931 75% 88k $3.5M (exactly $3,516,321) Tactical Adventures
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Suikoden I&II HD Remaster Gate Rune and Dunan Unification Wars $49.99 2,049 94% 61k $3.1M (exactly $3,072,885) KONAMI
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
NORSE: Oath of Blood $34.99 2,535 56% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,990) Arctic Hazard
Cyber Knights: Flashpoint $29.99 2,926 93% 88k $2.6M (exactly $2,632,522) Trese Brothers

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.