Do I ship it?

GamesSurvivalSurvival + Tactical RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tactical RPG Survival game?

Survival + Tactical RPG

Of 62 developers who shipped a Tactical RPG Survival game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 136 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×764 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 136 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 136 announced, ×4.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Survival + Tactical RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.0k → $1.5k → $1.8k → $839 → $13k → $479 → $299 (still earning) → $3.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Survival + Tactical RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $22,292)
Top 5% $480k (exactly $479,760)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 192
Announced 136
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Survival
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Survival, Tactical RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Management
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 10,304 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $22k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 37 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 136 games are announced against 32 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Survival with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds14 devs · median $74k · 10 announced
  2. + Social DeductionFair31 devs · median $6.2k · 35 announced
  3. + Word GameFair22 devs · median $2.1k · 29 announced
  4. + CatsFair33 devs · median $1.2k · 34 announced
  5. + CollectathonFair77 devs · median $1.0k · 84 announced
  6. + IdlerFair96 devs · median $836 · 99 announced
  7. + Auto BattlerFair79 devs · median $807 · 90 announced
  8. + IncrementalFair101 devs · median $599 · 130 announced
  9. + DogsFair20 devs · median $535 · 19 announced
  10. + Martial ArtsLong shot19 devs · median $419 · 17 announced
  11. + Boomer ShooterLong shot39 devs · median $359 · 32 announced
  12. + DiplomacyPoor odds16 devs · median $100k · 28 announced

All 234 pairs on the Survival page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
RimWorld older $34.99 208,693 97% 6.3M $219M (exactly $219,065,042) Ludeon Studios
Wartales older $34.99 32,118 86% 964k $34M (exactly $33,714,265) Shiro Games
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
Between the Stars older $29.99 1,965 75% 59k $1.8M (exactly $1,767,910) Isolated Games
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
Dungeon Settlers · EA $24.99 1,117 79% 34k $837k (exactly $837,415) CanOpener
Scavland · EA $19.99 800 81% 24k $480k (exactly $479,760) NoShadow
Dust to the End older $11.99 1,076 78% 32k $387k (exactly $387,037) Haojoy Game, Zjoy Game
Valorborn · EA $24.99 492 60% 15k $369k (exactly $368,852) Laps Games
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown $27.99 374 54% 11k $314k (exactly $314,048) Zugalu Entertainment
Escape The Mad Empire · EA $17.99 406 88% 12k $219k (exactly $219,118) XperimentalZ Games
This Grand Life 2 $17.99 307 88% 9.2k $166k (exactly $165,688) Poking Water Games
MEMOLITH: Forsaken by Light $19.99 220 76% 6.6k $132k (exactly $131,934) Black Anchor

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.