Do I ship it?

GamesCombatCombat + Tactical RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Combat Tactical RPG?

Combat + Tactical RPG

Of 164 developers who shipped a Combat Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 335 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $350k, ×570 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 335 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 335 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Combat + Tactical RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 164
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $1.8k → $628 → $419 → $1.2k → $2.5k → $719 (still earning) → $479 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Combat + Tactical RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 164
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $8.0k (exactly $7,969)
Top 5% $358k (exactly $358,021)
Developers, 2 yr 164
Released games 415
Announced 335
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Combat
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Combat, Tactical RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 11,004 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $900, 1 in 4 over $7.9k, 1 in 20 over $350k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 335 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Combat with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Real-Time with PauseStrong odds14 devs · median $15k · 12 announced
  2. + 4XFair32 devs · median $3.8k · 48 announced
  3. + TypingFair20 devs · median $2.2k · 26 announced
  4. + VampiresFair54 devs · median $1.9k · 64 announced
  5. + SnowFair21 devs · median $1.2k · 24 announced
  6. + Walking SimulatorFair51 devs · median $599 · 61 announced
  7. + Match 3Long shot13 devs · median $359 · 16 announced
  8. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds32 devs · median $55k · 85 announced
  9. + Political SimPoor odds14 devs · median $49k · 22 announced
  10. + Extraction ShooterPoor odds21 devs · median $31k · 47 announced
  11. + Dating SimPoor odds23 devs · median $19k · 45 announced
  12. + LGBTQ+Poor odds52 devs · median $16k · 90 announced

All 248 pairs on the Combat page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Pathfinder: Wrath of the Righteous - Enhanced Edition older $49.99 34,157 83% 1.0M $51M (exactly $51,225,253) Owlcat Games
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Partisans 1941 older $29.99 7,531 82% 226k $6.8M (exactly $6,775,641) Alter Games
Dragon Age II: Ultimate Edition older $29.99 6,953 81% 209k $6.3M (exactly $6,255,614) BioWare
Shadow Gambit: The Cursed Crew older $39.99 5,190 91% 156k $6.2M (exactly $6,226,443) Mimimi Games
Sunderfolk $49.99 1,890 93% 57k $2.8M (exactly $2,834,433) Secret Door
Hard West 2 older $29.99 2,717 80% 82k $2.4M (exactly $2,444,485) Ice Code Games
Cobalt Core older $19.99 4,067 95% 122k $2.4M (exactly $2,438,980) Rocket Rat Games
Punch Club 2: Fast Forward older $19.99 3,808 81% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,283,658) Lazy Bear Games
The Legend of Heroes: Trails through Daybreak older $59.99 1,172 91% 35k $2.1M (exactly $2,109,248) Nihon Falcom, PH3 GmbH
PATAPON 1+2 REPLAY $29.99 2,091 83% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,273) SAS CO.,LTD.
Three Kingdoms Mushouden $24.99 1,876 72% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,406,437) NanBei Studio
Metal Slug Tactics $24.99 1,152 76% 35k $864k (exactly $863,654) Leikir Studio
Rogue Waters $29.99 955 75% 29k $859k (exactly $859,214) Ice Code Games
Titanium Court $14.99 1,094 94% 33k $492k (exactly $491,972) AP Thomson
Terrinoth®: Heroes of Descent $34.99 441 75% 13k $463k (exactly $462,918) Artefacts Studio, Shine Group
The Three Kingdoms: The Tales of Jian An $17.99 690 88% 21k $372k (exactly $372,393) 开翼网络
Netherworld Covenant $19.99 597 78% 18k $358k (exactly $358,021) MadGoat Game Studio
Disciples: Domination $44.99 218 65% 6.5k $294k (exactly $294,235) Artefacts Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.