Do I ship it?

GamesCraftingCrafting + Tactical RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crafting Tactical RPG?

Crafting + Tactical RPG

Of 46 developers who shipped a Crafting Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 99 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $360k, ×587 the market median. Revenue is up 250% on the market; 99 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 250% on the market, 99 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Crafting + Tactical RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.2k → $809 → $6.7k → $7.7k → $1.2k → $3.5k → $719 (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Crafting + Tactical RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $15k (exactly $15,285)
Top 5% $369k (exactly $368,852)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 128
Announced 99
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 250% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Crafting
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Crafting, Tactical RPG; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Adventure, Party-Based RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 6,587 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $360k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 9 in 10 of the 26 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 99 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Crafting with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Job SimulatorStrong odds62 devs · median $15k · 65 announced
  2. + SportsFair24 devs · median $37k · 26 announced
  3. + Turn-BasedFair16 devs · median $17k · 24 announced
  4. + IdlerFair235 devs · median $1.7k · 338 announced
  5. + SolitaireFair12 devs · median $809 · 20 announced
  6. + LovecraftianPoor odds17 devs · median $174k · 39 announced
  7. + MMORPGPoor odds25 devs · median $111k · 155 announced
  8. + LGBTQ+Poor odds19 devs · median $90k · 50 announced
  9. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds160 devs · median $77k · 369 announced
  10. + WesternPoor odds13 devs · median $69k · 23 announced
  11. + Bullet HeavenPoor odds20 devs · median $44k · 25 announced
  12. + TrainsPoor odds17 devs · median $39k · 30 announced

All 200 pairs on the Crafting page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Mind Over Magic $24.99 4,314 86% 129k $3.2M (exactly $3,234,206) Sparkypants
SpellForce: Conquest of Eo older $29.99 2,149 80% 64k $1.9M (exactly $1,933,455) Owned by Gravity
Aces & Adventures older $19.99 2,220 89% 67k $1.3M (exactly $1,331,334) Triple.B.Titles
Labyrinth of Touhou Tri -The Dreaming Girls & The Mysterious Orbs- $19.99 616 82% 18k $369k (exactly $369,415) Nise-Eikoku Studio
Valorborn · EA $24.99 492 60% 15k $369k (exactly $368,852) Laps Games
Shardpunk older $13.99 739 92% 22k $310k (exactly $310,158) Clockwork Pile
TFM: The First Men · EA older $24.99 372 55% 11k $279k (exactly $278,888) Gathering Tree
Stirring Abyss older $24.99 334 88% 10k $250k (exactly $250,400) Sleepy Sentry, K-Project
Philna Fantasy $14.99 477 52% 14k $215k (exactly $214,507) Sailike Game
Ascend From Nine Mountains · EA $19.99 324 92% 9.7k $194k (exactly $194,303) Nine Ascension Studios
Avernum 4: Greed and Glory $19.99 133 92% 4.0k $80k (exactly $79,760) Spiderweb Software
Effulgence RPG $19.99 65 87% 2.0k $39k (exactly $38,980) Andrei Fomin
Sin Slayers: Reign of The 8th $19.99 59 64% 1.8k $35k (exactly $35,382) Goonswarm Games
Cosplay Club $18.99 41 60% 1.2k $23k (exactly $23,358) Behold Studios
Next Run $9.99 66 75% 2.0k $20k (exactly $19,780) Clarus Victoria

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.