Do I ship it?

GamesTactical RPGTactical RPG + Collectathon

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Collectathon Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Collectathon

Only 12 developers shipped a Collectathon Tactical RPG in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Alchemy Quest, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 15 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $20k, ×32 the market median. Revenue is up 575% on the market; 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 575% on the market, 15 announced, ×2.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Collectathon
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 12
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $36k → $3.6k → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Collectathon: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 12
Bottom 30% $270 (exactly $270)
Median $899 (exactly $899)
Top 25% $4.3k (exactly $4,316)
Top 5% $20k (exactly $20,143)
Developers, 2 yr 12
Released games 33
Announced 15
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 575% on the market, supply 40% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 24%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Collectathon
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Collectathon
Price point
$9.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 159 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $900, 1 in 4 over $4.3k, 1 in 20 over $20k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 9 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 15 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cassette Beasts older $19.99 8,976 94% 269k $5.4M (exactly $5,382,907) Bytten Studio
LABYRINTH OF TOUHOU - GENSOKYO AND THE HEAVEN-PIERCING TREE older $29.99 363 89% 11k $327k (exactly $326,591) Nise-Eikoku Studio, CUBETYPE
Siralim older $9.99 201 83% 6.0k $60k (exactly $60,240) Thylacine Studios
SOULVARS older $16.99 70 78% 2.1k $36k (exactly $35,679) ginolabo, SUCCESS Corp.
Alchemy Quest $11.99 56 83% 1.7k $20k (exactly $20,143) Ellabelle
戦国英雄譚-Samurai Heroes- $9.99 47 89% 1.4k $14k (exactly $14,086) hizaniya games
Royal Merchant older $4.99 75 62% 2.3k $11k (exactly $11,228) Badim
Empire of Empires older $4.99 29 75% 870 $4.3k (exactly $4,341) ·
The Hundred Youkai Master $11.99 12 75% 360 $4.3k (exactly $4,316) OCG S studio, OCG FCGD Division
Totto's Magic Soup $9.99 12 100% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) アルネコデザイン
Brominion $7.99 11 100% 330 $2.6k (exactly $2,637) Hyralism
Wayward Valley · EA $14.99 2 0% 60 $899 (exactly $899) PixelPulse Studio
Fantasy Waifu Collector $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) SyKoHPaTh
Seeker Shrine $0.99 15 93% 450 $446 (exactly $446) Jestercraft
SINGULARITY $8.99 1 100% 30 $270 (exactly $270) xzx
SIN CARDS: Welcome to the Netherworld $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) Wynand Smit

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.