Do I ship it?

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Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Board Game Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Board Game

Of 62 developers who shipped a Board Game Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 78 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $470k, ×750 the market median. Revenue is up 270% on the market; 78 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 270% on the market, 78 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Board Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 62
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $1.4k → $3.6k → $2.9k → $9.0k → $599 → $1.8k (still earning) → $14k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Board Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 62
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,183)
Top 5% $471k (exactly $470,812)
Developers, 2 yr 62
Released games 147
Announced 78
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 270% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 20%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Board Game
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Board Game; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Turn-Based Tactics, RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 4,893 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $470k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 9 in 10 of the 34 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 78 games are announced against 34 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Gloomhaven 2021 · $14M Armello 2015 · $8.3M Mordheim: City of the Damned 2015 · $4.2M Stolen Realm 2024 · $2.1M Trials of Fire 2021 · $1.8M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Gloomhaven older $34.99 13,628 82% 409k $14M (exactly $14,305,312) Flaming Fowl Studios, Saber Interactive
Armello older $24.99 11,013 82% 330k $8.3M (exactly $8,256,446) League of Geeks
Mordheim: City of the Damned older $19.99 7,056 72% 212k $4.2M (exactly $4,231,483) Rogue Factor
Stolen Realm older $19.99 3,470 84% 104k $2.1M (exactly $2,080,959) Burst2Flame Games
Trials of Fire older $19.99 2,975 86% 89k $1.8M (exactly $1,784,107) Whatboy Games
Demeo x Dungeons & Dragons: Battlemarked $29.99 1,235 82% 37k $1.1M (exactly $1,111,130) Resolution Games
Frosthaven · EA $39.99 814 72% 24k $977k (exactly $976,556) Snapshot Games Inc.
Warhammer Underworlds - Shadespire Edition (Classic) older $29.99 1,059 70% 32k $953k (exactly $952,782) Steel Sky Productions, Tin Man Games
Tales & Tactics older $17.99 1,737 80% 52k $937k (exactly $937,459) Table 9 Studio
The Legend of Fancy Realm Remake $24.99 897 86% 27k $672k (exactly $672,481) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Burden of Command™ $24.99 628 83% 19k $471k (exactly $470,812) Green Tree Games LLC
Dead Grid $12.99 504 93% 15k $196k (exactly $196,409) Atom Void
Erannorth Renaissance $19.99 186 81% 5.6k $112k (exactly $111,544) Spyridon Thalassinos
Cell Command $17.99 159 97% 4.8k $86k (exactly $85,812) Alpherior
Underboard $14.99 181 74% 5.4k $81k (exactly $81,396) Headless
Conquest Tactics : Realm of Sin $14.99 162 69% 4.9k $73k (exactly $72,851) Singular Sunshine Studios
Re:Night $13.99 127 88% 3.8k $53k (exactly $53,302) Seahorse Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.