Do I ship it?

Games › Tactical RPG › Tactical RPG + Traditional Roguelike

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Traditional Roguelike Tactical RPG?

Tactical RPG + Traditional Roguelike

Of 24 developers who shipped a Traditional Roguelike Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 34 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×710 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 34 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 34 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Tactical RPG + Traditional Roguelike
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 24
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $66k → $539 → $5.4k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Tactical RPG + Traditional Roguelike: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 24
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $599 (exactly $599)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,639)
Top 5% $446k (exactly $446,177)
Developers, 2 yr 24
Released games 42
Announced 34
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 400% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 2%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Traditional Roguelike
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Tactical RPG, Traditional Roguelike; all of the top 25% also carry RPG, Roguelike, Turn-Based Combat
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Retro, Third Person, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 84% positive over 1,743 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $600, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 34 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair24 devs · median $9.0k · 29 announced
  2. + Mystery DungeonFair30 devs · median $2.4k · 24 announced
  3. + Space SimFair9 devs · median $1.8k · 15 announced
  4. + Point & ClickFair21 devs · median $839 · 26 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair58 devs · median $599 · 49 announced
  6. + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  7. + Colony SimPoor odds16 devs · median $41k · 29 announced
  8. + SandboxPoor odds42 devs · median $20k · 102 announced
  9. + Turn-BasedPoor odds61 devs · median $18k · 81 announced
  10. + RobotsPoor odds15 devs · median $17k · 27 announced
  11. + RomancePoor odds23 devs · median $10k · 38 announced
  12. + WarPoor odds80 devs · median $8.7k · 143 announced

All 145 pairs on the Tactical RPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Low Magic Age 2017 · EA · $1.5M Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island 2024 · $564k Rift Wizard 2 2025 · $446k Desktop Dungeons: Rewind 2023 · $300k Ultimate ADOM - Caverns of Chaos 2021 · $257k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Low Magic Age · EA older $14.99 3,342 89% 100k $1.5M (exactly $1,502,897) Low Magic Studios
Shiren the Wanderer: The Mystery Dungeon of Serpentcoil Island $39.99 470 85% 14k $564k (exactly $563,859) Spike Chunsoft Co., Ltd.
Rift Wizard 2 $19.99 744 91% 22k $446k (exactly $446,177) Dylan White
Desktop Dungeons: Rewind older $19.99 501 75% 15k $300k (exactly $300,450) QCF Design
Ultimate ADOM - Caverns of Chaos older $19.99 429 47% 13k $257k (exactly $257,271) Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Krzysz… (Thomas Biskup, Jochen Terstiege, Krzysztof Dycha, Lucas Dieguez, Bastian von Gostomski, Carola Sochiera, Björn Loesing)
Sproggiwood older $14.99 326 79% 9.8k $147k (exactly $146,602) Freehold Games
Mortal Glory older $7.99 553 86% 17k $133k (exactly $132,554) Redbeak Games
Mainframe Defenders older $5.99 724 87% 22k $130k (exactly $130,103) Synthetic Domain
Dragon Quest Heroes: Torneko's Mystery Dungeon -Classic HD- $24.99 160 49% 4.8k $120k (exactly $119,952) Square Enix
Forsworn $15.99 187 90% 5.6k $90k (exactly $89,704) Resummon Studios LLC
Indies' Lies 2: Fire Seed $14.99 73 67% 2.2k $33k (exactly $32,828) Fun Square Games
Feywood Wanderers $14.99 37 86% 1.1k $17k (exactly $16,639) Vicente Miranda
Boardlike · EA $12.99 27 70% 810 $11k (exactly $10,522) Bozz
A Tale of Silent Depths $9.99 21 80% 630 $6.3k (exactly $6,294) Crit42 Studio
Divineblaze : March Tactics $14.99 12 66% 360 $5.4k (exactly $5,396) LD Game Studio
Deckbane $9.99 12 66% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) Soong

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.