Do I ship it?

GamesReal Time TacticsReal Time Tactics + Tactical RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tactical RPG Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Tactical RPG

Of 80 developers who shipped a Tactical RPG Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 166 more are announced, ×4.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.1k, ×3.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $330; 1 in 20 cleared $310k, ×500 the market median. Revenue is down 55% on the market; 166 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 55% on the market, 166 announced, ×4.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Tactical RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.3k → $1.5k → $2.4k → $419 → $6.7k → $4.0k → $1.1k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Tactical RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $330 (exactly $330)
Median $2.1k (exactly $2,098)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $12,587)
Top 5% $314k (exactly $314,048)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 262
Announced 166
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 55% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, Tactical RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RPG, RTS
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 69% positive over 6,933 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $330, median $2.1k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $310k.

3 in 10 developers made under $330. 9 in 10 of the 57 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 166 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Partisans 1941 older $29.99 7,531 82% 226k $6.8M (exactly $6,775,641) Alter Games
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Showgunners older $29.99 1,642 93% 49k $1.5M (exactly $1,477,307) Artificer
The DioField Chronicle older $59.99 685 49% 21k $1.2M (exactly $1,232,794) Square Enix, LANCARSE Ltd.
Crown and Adventure $19.99 1,693 61% 51k $1.0M (exactly $1,015,292) C3D Games
Ancient Warfare: The Han Dynasty · EA older $16.99 1,708 69% 51k $871k (exactly $870,568) 不秋草游戏工作室(Bamboo Games)
Kingdom Under Fire: The Crusaders older $19.99 1,045 91% 31k $627k (exactly $626,686) Blueside
Huaxia: Warring States · EA $19.99 701 61% 21k $420k (exactly $420,390) 秦川汉渚
Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown $27.99 374 54% 11k $314k (exactly $314,048) Zugalu Entertainment
The End of History · EA $28.00 366 68% 11k $307k (exactly $307,440) Tatamibeya
Trench Lord: Eastern Front $11.99 774 83% 23k $278k (exactly $278,408) Tracer Studio, LING YUN CO.,LTD.
Defender's Quest 2: Mists of Ruin $19.99 242 61% 7.3k $145k (exactly $145,127) Level Up Labs, LLC
巴哈姆特1-REMAKE(BAHAMUT1-REMAKE) $9.99 170 95% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,949) 王韋
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim $14.99 91 56% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Lunar pug studio
MOCHI-O $4.99 231 99% 6.9k $35k (exactly $34,581) Zxima

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.