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Should I ship a Choose Your Own Adventure Tactical RPG?
Tactical RPG + Choose Your Own Adventure
Of 37 developers who shipped a Choose Your Own Adventure Tactical RPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 80 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $960; 1 in 20 cleared $76k, ×122 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 80 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $959 (exactly $959) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,500) |
| Top 25% | $8.2k (exactly $8,150) |
| Top 5% | $76k (exactly $76,449) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 37 |
| Released games | 108 |
| Announced | 80 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 70% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Tactical RPG
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Choose Your Own Adventure
- effort 2 / 10 · high · branching text with light state
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Tactical RPG, Choose Your Own Adventure; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Choices Matter, Turn-Based Combat
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, Colorful
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 85% positive over 806 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $960. Nearly all of the 25 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 80 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Tactical RPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + Space SimFair
- + Point & ClickFair
- + 2D PlatformerFair
- + Asynchronous MultiplayerPoor odds
- + Colony SimPoor odds
- + SandboxPoor odds
- + Turn-BasedPoor odds
- + RobotsPoor odds
- + RomancePoor odds
- + WarPoor odds
Comparable games
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal 2023 · $114M 
Pathway 2019 · $915k 
Legends of Eisenwald 2015 · $836k 
Black Geyser: Couriers of Darkness 2022 · $831k 
For the People 2020 · $372k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | 鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal | older | $19.99 | 190,184 56% | 5.7M | $114M (exactly $114,053,345) | 鬼谷工作室 |
| | Pathway | older | $15.99 | 1,908 76% | 57k | $915k (exactly $915,268) | Robotality |
| | Legends of Eisenwald | older | $19.99 | 1,394 76% | 42k | $836k (exactly $835,982) | Aterdux Entertainment |
| | Black Geyser: Couriers of Darkness | older | $29.99 | 924 74% | 28k | $831k (exactly $831,323) | GrapeOcean Technologies |
| | For the People | older | $16.99 | 729 73% | 22k | $372k (exactly $371,571) | Brezg Studio |
 | Ash of Gods: The Way | older | $24.99 | 416 80% | 12k | $312k (exactly $311,875) | AurumDust |
 | Earthling's Undertaking | older | $10.99 | 930 64% | 28k | $307k (exactly $306,621) | Current Games |
 | Fabled Lands | older | $18.99 | 523 79% | 16k | $298k (exactly $297,953) | Prime Games |
 | Love of Magic | older | $14.99 | 417 88% | 13k | $188k (exactly $187,525) | Droid Productions |
 | Path of the Midnight Sun | older | $19.99 | 237 83% | 7.1k | $142k (exactly $142,129) | Studio Daimon |
 | Erannorth Renaissance | $19.99 | 186 81% | 5.6k | $112k (exactly $111,544) | Spyridon Thalassinos | |
 | Spear Song | · EA | $14.99 | 170 88% | 5.1k | $76k (exactly $76,449) | Divovision Games |
 | STARBITES | $49.99 | 42 64% | 1.3k | $63k (exactly $62,987) | IKINAGAMES | |
 | Draw Steel | · EA | $19.99 | 67 98% | 2.0k | $40k (exactly $40,180) | Verisim, MCDM |
 | Ataegina Act I | $11.99 | 83 92% | 2.5k | $30k (exactly $29,855) | Kthulian | |
 | SkullX: Aibohphobia | $9.99 | 76 90% | 2.3k | $23k (exactly $22,777) | SkullX, DSTRCT Creatives | |
 | Lustpunk 69 | $8.99 | 83 87% | 2.5k | $22k (exactly $22,385) | Kinky Business Group | |
 | Wings of Empire | · EA | $14.99 | 49 87% | 1.5k | $22k (exactly $22,035) | Droid Productions |
 | Cult Leader Simulator | $17.99 | 16 50% | 480 | $8.6k (exactly $8,635) | Nhneno | |
 | Demonslayer AKA Me | $7.99 | 34 73% | 1.0k | $8.2k (exactly $8,150) | 晶尘工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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