Do I ship it?

GamesRTSRTS + Tactical RPG

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Tactical RPG RTS?

RTS + Tactical RPG

Of 53 developers who shipped a Tactical RPG RTS in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 97 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×1.2 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×186 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 97 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.2 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 97 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
RTS + Tactical RPG
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 53
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.6k → $150 → $5.5k → $179 → $9.0k → $4.0k → $1.8k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for RTS + Tactical RPG: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 53
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,799)
Top 25% $7.2k (exactly $7,194)
Top 5% $278k (exactly $278,408)
Developers, 2 yr 53
Released games 195
Announced 97
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

RTS
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Tactical RPG
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
RTS, Tactical RPG; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Real Time Tactics, Strategy RPG
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 72% positive over 4,036 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $7.1k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 9 in 10 of the 39 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 97 games are announced against 27 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

RTS with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + RomeFair12 devs · median $64k · 13 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair16 devs · median $2.6k · 14 announced
  3. + HorrorFair20 devs · median $2.4k · 27 announced
  4. + NavalFair15 devs · median $2.4k · 21 announced
  5. + TabletopFair25 devs · median $1.9k · 33 announced
  6. + SportsLong shot19 devs · median $861 · 9 announced
  7. + PuzzleLong shot48 devs · median $479 · 40 announced
  8. + World War IIPoor odds23 devs · median $105k · 38 announced
  9. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds28 devs · median $64k · 41 announced
  10. + Open WorldPoor odds45 devs · median $35k · 100 announced
  11. + Colony SimPoor odds87 devs · median $31k · 159 announced
  12. + HistoricalPoor odds108 devs · median $30k · 180 announced

All 149 pairs on the RTS page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Kingdom Heroes 8 older $29.99 12,793 55% 384k $12M (exactly $11,509,862) USERJOY Technology Co.,Ltd.
Miasma Chronicles older $34.99 2,013 79% 60k $2.1M (exactly $2,113,046) The Bearded Ladies
Age of Reforging: The Freelands $29.99 2,291 71% 69k $2.1M (exactly $2,061,213) PersonaeGame Studio
Gladiator Guild Manager older $14.99 3,808 80% 114k $1.7M (exactly $1,712,458) Entertainment Forge
The DioField Chronicle older $59.99 685 49% 21k $1.2M (exactly $1,232,794) Square Enix, LANCARSE Ltd.
War Hospital older $29.99 1,006 60% 30k $905k (exactly $905,098) Brave Lamb Studio S.A.
Ancient Warfare: The Han Dynasty · EA older $16.99 1,708 69% 51k $871k (exactly $870,568) 不秋草游戏工作室(Bamboo Games)
Kingdom Under Fire: The Crusaders older $19.99 1,045 91% 31k $627k (exactly $626,686) Blueside
Thrive: Heavy Lies The Crown $27.99 374 54% 11k $314k (exactly $314,048) Zugalu Entertainment
Trench Lord: Eastern Front $11.99 774 83% 23k $278k (exactly $278,408) Tracer Studio, LING YUN CO.,LTD.
Lewd Dungeon Manager 🔞 $14.99 139 66% 4.2k $63k (exactly $62,508) Lewd Star
巴哈姆特1-REMAKE(BAHAMUT1-REMAKE) $9.99 170 95% 5.1k $51k (exactly $50,949) 王韋
Oasis Mission: Colony Sim $14.99 91 56% 2.7k $41k (exactly $40,923) Lunar pug studio
ELARIENNE $7.99 93 61% 2.8k $22k (exactly $22,292) JDL
NovaMundi $12.99 38 81% 1.1k $15k (exactly $14,809) Slashware Interactive
Status One $14.99 30 73% 900 $13k (exactly $13,491) LastCall Studio
Spacefleet: Heat Death · EA $11.99 36 86% 1.1k $13k (exactly $12,949) Spacezero Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.