Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Swordplay

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Swordplay game?

Swordplay

Of 356 developers who shipped a Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 742 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.1k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×2021 the market median. Revenue is up 120% on the market; 742 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 120% on the market, 742 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 356
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.9k → $1.5k → $3.3k → $1.8k → $898 → $1.1k → $809 (still earning) → $2.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 356
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.1k (exactly $1,079)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,509)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965)
Developers, 2 yr 356
Released games 1,192
Announced 742
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 120% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 269,589 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.1k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 225 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 742 games are announced against 179 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Swordplay

30 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Swordplay + Samurai Poor odds $80k 12 devs
  2. Swordplay + Female Protagonist Poor odds $13k 39 devs
  3. Swordplay + Romance Poor odds $5.7k 13 devs
  4. Swordplay + Historical Poor odds $3.6k 39 devs
  5. Swordplay + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $3.0k 71 devs
  6. Swordplay + Mythology Poor odds $2.0k 29 devs
  7. Swordplay + Ninja Poor odds $1.8k 32 devs
  8. Swordplay + Medieval Poor odds $1.2k 118 devs
  9. Swordplay + Magic Poor odds $1.1k 68 devs
  10. Swordplay + Fantasy Poor odds $1.0k 129 devs
  11. Swordplay + War Poor odds $958 19 devs
  12. Swordplay + Dragons Poor odds $897 21 devs
  13. Swordplay + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $836 9 devs
  14. Swordplay + Martial Arts Poor odds $600 49 devs
  15. Swordplay + Demons Poor odds $599 28 devs
  16. Swordplay + Sci-fi Poor odds $599 25 devs
  17. Swordplay + Futuristic Poor odds $599 16 devs
  18. Swordplay + Zombies Poor odds $599 12 devs
  19. Swordplay + Alternate History Poor odds $450 12 devs
  20. Swordplay + Nature Poor odds $356 20 devs
  21. Swordplay + Robots Poor odds $239 9 devs
  22. Swordplay + Cyberpunk Poor odds $208 11 devs
  23. Swordplay + Pirates Dead $156k 10 devs
  24. Swordplay + Horror Dead $43k 13 devs
  25. Swordplay + Mystery Dead $3.3k 10 devs
  26. Swordplay + Gothic Dead $1.4k 9 devs
  27. Swordplay + Assassins Dead $1.4k 7 devs
  28. Swordplay + Supernatural Dead $958 10 devs
  29. Swordplay + Space Dead $478 7 devs
  30. Swordplay + Military Dead $148 9 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M Kingdom Come: Deliverance II 2025 · $260M STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ 2023 · $168M Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2018 · $129M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition older $39.99 322,072 88% 9.7M $386M (exactly $386,389,778) Rare Ltd
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ older $39.99 153,782 88% 4.6M $184M (exactly $184,492,265) Respawn Entertainment
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ older $69.99 79,990 71% 2.4M $168M (exactly $167,955,003) Respawn
Kingdom Come: Deliverance older $29.99 143,303 83% 4.3M $129M (exactly $128,929,709) Warhorse Studios
FOR HONOR™ older $29.99 108,492 69% 3.3M $98M (exactly $97,610,252) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte)
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
MORDHAU older $29.99 91,678 80% 2.8M $82M (exactly $82,482,697) Triternion
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS $69.99 19,578 92% 587k $41M (exactly $41,107,927) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
NINJA GAIDEN 4 $69.99 8,459 88% 254k $18M (exactly $17,761,362) PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.)
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii $59.99 6,584 88% 198k $12M (exactly $11,849,225) RGG Studio
Rise of the Ronin $49.99 6,503 64% 195k $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.
BLEACH Rebirth of Souls $59.99 4,831 68% 145k $8.7M (exactly $8,694,351) TAMSOFT CORPORATION
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.