Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + Samurai
Should I ship a Samurai Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Samurai
Only 12 developers shipped a Samurai Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Assassin’s Creed Shadows, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $80k, ×127 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $90; 1 in 20 cleared $73M, ×116864 the market median. Revenue is down 100% on the market; 21 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $90 (exactly $90) |
|---|---|
| Median | $80k (exactly $79,888) |
| Top 25% | $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) |
| Top 5% | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 12 |
| Released games | 26 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $24.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 200% more developers than the period before.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay
- Price point
- $24.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 9 games average 77% positive over 53,610 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $90. 21 games are announced against 9 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
- + Open WorldPoor odds
Comparable games
Kenshi 2018 · $89M 
Assassin’s Creed Shadows 2025 · $73M 
Onimusha: Way of the Sword 2026 · $24M 
Rise of the Ronin 2025 · $9.8M 
SAMURAI SHODOWN 2021 · $2.5M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kenshi | older | $29.99 | 98,451 95% | 3.0M | $89M (exactly $88,576,365) | Lo-Fi Games |
| | Assassin’s Creed Shadows | $69.99 | 34,953 75% | 1.0M | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine) | |
| | Onimusha: Way of the Sword | $69.99 | 11,279 89% | 338k | $24M (exactly $23,682,516) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
| | Rise of the Ronin | $49.99 | 6,503 64% | 195k | $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
| | SAMURAI SHODOWN | older | $49.53 | 1,685 81% | 51k | $2.5M (exactly $2,503,742) | SNK CORPORATION |
 | Onimusha: Warlords | older | $19.99 | 2,843 93% | 85k | $1.7M (exactly $1,704,947) | CAPCOM CO., LTD |
 | Way of the Samurai 4 | older | $24.99 | 1,939 76% | 58k | $1.5M (exactly $1,453,668) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered | $59.99 | 289 83% | 8.7k | $520k (exactly $520,113) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | Akane | older | $4.99 | 2,753 95% | 83k | $412k (exactly $412,124) | Ludic Studios |
 | KATANA KAMI: A Way of the Samurai Story | older | $29.99 | 406 59% | 12k | $365k (exactly $365,278) | ACQUIRE Corp. |
 | Warlord: Awaji | $24.99 | 256 78% | 7.7k | $192k (exactly $191,923) | Darkmatter Games | |
 | Red Masked Ronin: Desires and Shadows | · EA | $12.99 | 205 64% | 6.2k | $80k (exactly $79,888) | Light Hunt Games |
 | Disco Samurai | $9.99 | 45 88% | 1.4k | $13k (exactly $13,486) | Pixel Fiber Games | |
 | Samurai: Ronin's Path | $4.99 | 79 56% | 2.4k | $12k (exactly $11,826) | GameHunters | |
 | Bamboo Bushido | $2.99 | 1 100% | 30 | $90 (exactly $90) | Waffle Hound Studios | |
 | Blood Moon Duel | $9.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | ChaosXTRM games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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