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Should I ship a Pirate Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Pirates
Only 10 developers shipped a Pirate Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 17 more are announced, ×8.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.
Only 2 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $160k against a market of $630. 17 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $27k (exactly $26,861) |
|---|---|
| Median | $156k (exactly $156,496) |
| Top 25% | $210k (exactly $209,943) |
| Top 5% | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 10 |
| Released games | 37 |
| Announced | 17 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $17.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 75% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 19%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay
- Price point
- $17.99 typical
Why players buy here
The top 10 games average 86% positive over 8,275 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $27k. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 17 games are announced against 2 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition 2020 · $386M 
Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii 2025 · $12M 
Assassin's Creed Freedom Cry 2014 · $1.3M 
Blood and Gold: Caribbean! 2015 · $712k 
Forgotten Seas 2025 · $356k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Sea of Thieves: 2026 Edition | older | $39.99 | 322,072 88% | 9.7M | $386M (exactly $386,389,778) | Rare Ltd |
| | Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii | $59.99 | 6,584 88% | 198k | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) | RGG Studio | |
| | Assassin's Creed Freedom Cry | older | $14.99 | 2,891 77% | 87k | $1.3M (exactly $1,300,083) | Ubisoft Montreal |
| | Blood and Gold: Caribbean! | older | $19.99 | 1,188 59% | 36k | $712k (exactly $712,444) | Snowbird Games |
| | Forgotten Seas | $24.99 | 475 75% | 14k | $356k (exactly $356,108) | Pangea Game Studios | |
 | DAVY x JONES | · EA | $17.99 | 389 82% | 12k | $210k (exactly $209,943) | PARASIGHT |
 | Captain Blood | $24.99 | 266 77% | 8.0k | $199k (exactly $199,420) | Seawolf Studio, General Arcade | |
 | Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey | $14.99 | 348 79% | 10k | $156k (exactly $156,496) | World of Poly | |
 | Feral Blue | · EA older | $19.99 | 239 51% | 7.2k | $143k (exactly $143,328) | Snowbird Games |
 | SeaCret 1 | · EA | $39.99 | 99 61% | 3.0k | $119k (exactly $118,770) | Dalas |
 | Shadowhand Solitaire | $13.99 | 64 90% | 1.9k | $27k (exactly $26,861) | Grey Alien Games | |
 | Buccaneers Shipshape | $12.99 | 31 87% | 930 | $12k (exactly $12,081) | Merso Entertainment | |
 | Samurai's Odyssey | · EA | $7.99 | 6 66% | 180 | $1.4k (exactly $1,438) | CODEUM GAMES, 11Gen |
 | Island of Challenge | $1.99 | 13 92% | 390 | $776 (exactly $776) | Doorway Mountain Studios |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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